February 24, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Day Trading the news with Crude Oil, Gold, Euro and Russell Futures
830am EST
– Durable goods come out much lower than expected without the auto industry, lets see how the market reacts to this
– Jobless claims come out flat, as expected
– Remember these news events are juggled around for Thursday because of the holiday on Monday
835am est
– We check the dollar index to see how the speed and the average true range is acting.
– We see higher lows on the ATR so we are anxious to see what the day brings.
– We formulate a quick plan of attack using the dollar 34range chart
– If the dollar drops to test the lows of 77.00 this will result in testing the highs on crude, gold, euro, Russell, etc.
– If the lows hold on the 77.00 level of the dollar and the DX rises, this will give us an excellent chance to sell the highs of the markets we trade most.
– If you see the lows hold, looking for selling opportunities on the markets we trade most.
845am est
– We take some time to review the average true range on the gold and we learn some valuable things
o Range is getting wider today
o We’re not at the best levels to trade at YET today
o The best ranges were after 10am EST on the gold
– Very slow and sluggish in the markets right now after the 830am est news came out flat.
– Crude oil trying to navigate the lows of the wedge and the lows of the price channel
– Gold trying to make new highs but running into trend line resistance.
915am est
– The crude oil market has been violently moving around the 100.0 level
– We notice the dollar has NOT moved an inch
– Therefore we assume this WHOLE move is based on FEAR and SPECTULATION about rising prices.
– The lack of dollar movement tells us to expect prices to return to their previous levels.
– We continue to see more news chatter regarding the middle east
– We will continue to watch the DOLLAR to see if there is any long term fundamental view on the price of crude oil
1030am est
– The market personality on crude oil slows down tremendously ahead of the 11am news for crude oil inventories
– Remember this news is usually on Wednesday @ 1030am, so this is different.
– The 34 range chart of the gold shows a very sideways market, with candlesticks on top of the others and showing not much movement to new highs or new lows
1100am EST
– We’re waiting for crude oil inventories at 11am
– We see the markets taking a very sluggish personality going into 11am
– We’ve heard news out of the UK, so we’re keeping a close eye on the dollar index correlation.
– If the euro falls we have to be concerned that the negative correlation on the gold and crude oil will not be true,.
– When the euro falls people leave that currency and get into the Dollar and Gold
– Dollar AND gold may be rising at the same time
1105am est
– We see mixed feelings from the crude oil market after seeing a big drop in inventories
– This tells us a few things:
– Durable goods were lower, so we have less CL to produce, which may have caused supply to decrease, results in lower inventories
– Perhaps the demand was higher? This would also result in rising prices
– We saw price drop initially, so we’re waiting to see how the long term reaction to this news will be.
1145AM est
– Lets wrap things up with 3 winning trades on crude oil for over 330 ticks with the adv method today
– We made $300/contract on the fast track
– We can learn from our mistakes today
o 100.00 level is a very difficult on crude oil
o Trading around a trend line is always higher risk
