Market Internals Update

***Economic Data***

– (CL) Chile Jan Industrial Production Y/Y: 4.0 v 4.5%e; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.8%e
– (CL) Chile Jan Unemployment Rate: 7.3% v 7.1%e
– (CL) Chile Jan Total Copper Production: 446.9K v 497.6K tons
– (SA) South Africa Jan Trade Balance: -4.9B v -2.3Be
– (CA) Canada Q4 Current Account (BOP): -C$ 11.0Bv-C$9.7Be
– (CA) Canada Dec Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.5% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 2.8%e; Quarterly GDP Annualized: 3.3% v 3.0%e
– (US) Jan Personal Income: 1.0% v 0.4%e; Personal Spending: 0.2% v 0.4%e
– (US) Jan PCE Core M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y:0.8 % v 0.8%e; PCE Deflator Y/Y: % v 1.3%e
– (BE) Belgium Jan YTD Budget balance:-€2.0B v -€11.2B prior
– (PE) Peru Q4 GDP Y/Y: 9.2 v 9.5% prior
– (US) Feb Chicago Purchasing Manager: 71.2 v 67.5e
– (US) Feb NAPM-Milwaukee: 63.0 v 59.9e
– (US) Jan Pending Home Sales M/M: -2.8% v -2.3%e; Y/Y: -4.4% v -3.3% prior
– (US) Feb Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: v 12.6e v 10.9 prior

– Equities are broadly higher as markets continue to regain ground lost during last week’s mini oil shock related to the unrest in Libya. Oil prices remain elevated in early trading this morning: front-month WTI crude made another run for $100 earlier this morning but is presently trading below $97.50, while Brent crude futures are around $112. Another dose of strong US economic data is supporting confidence, with the February Chicago PMI index at its highest level since 1988. Note that the Chicago PMI employment sub index declined from the January survey. The January personal income data showed solid growth, although there has been some concern about the lack of follow through into consumer purchases given that January personal spending barely grew at all. The January pending home sales rolled back over into m/m losses (as expected) after two prior months of positive m/m gains. Treasury prices are little changed consolidating last week’s gains with the 10-year yield holding just above 3.4%.

– In deal news, hospital owner Ventas said it would buy Nationwide Health Properties Inc. in a $5.8B deal, creating the nation’s largest health care real-estate investment trust. Note that in his annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett said he was getting ready for another “elephant-sized” transaction, although he gave no clues as to what sort of game he was hunting.

– The greenback maintained a soft tone during the NY morning with EUR/USD just shy of breeching its Feb 4th high of 1.3862. The CAD benefited from a stronger Dec GDP reading to hit fresh 3-year highs against the greenback. Overall month-end factors attributing to the soft USD tone.

***Looking Ahead***

– 11:00 (CO) Colombia Jan Urban Unemployment Rate: 13.7%e v 11.3% prior
– 11:30 (EU) EBRD’s Mirow Press Conference in Brussels
– 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $5-7B in Notes/Bonds
– 11:30 (US) Treasury to s $32B in 3-Month and $30B in 6-month Bills
– 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Construction Activity M/M: No est v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 19.6% prior