March 14, 2011

Day Trading Morning Prep Gold, Crude Oil, Dollar Index, Euro, E-mini Russell Futures

‘We are what we repeatedly do.  Excellence, therefore, is not an act, but a habit’ – Aristotle
Let’s begin our morning routine with the economic news for today’s trading session.
8:20 Gold & Currencies OPEN
9:00 Crude Oil OPEN
9:30 US Market OPEN
11:00 Transition into Lunch
11:30 European Close / Live Webinar in our Trade Room
Looking the news today, we dont have anything specific to watch out for.  With the earthquake in Japan, OPEX this week, and of course friday is Quadruple Witching, we have LOTS of external factors to keep up with today, and throughout the week.
This week will be filled with times of low volume, periods of great speed and amazing patterns, and then back to quiet and falling asleep.
There will indeed be plenty of opportunity to make profit today, and throughout the whole week, but we will need to pick our ‘spots’ wisely as we made decisions to take trades.
Im looking for the very best trades this week, so get your entry rules out and lets put together a plan of attack.
Lets take a look at the charts we’re watching this morning…

The dollar index sets the tone of the week early with a very obvious sideways market, which tells us exactly what to be looking for.
We recal the Dollar Index Futures Correlation when using the DX 06-11 chart for our day trading strategy.
Remember, with the dollar trading sideways these markets can go either direction, so we have NO BIAS long or short, and we need to be watching the dollars support and resistance to confirm our trades today.
For example, if the dollar rises up to the highs of the range on the 34range chart we need to be looking for buying opportunities on the markets we trade.
On the flip side, if the dollar drops to the lows, we expect it then to RISE off the lows, so look for SELLING opportunities on the markets we trade.
Remember, on a sideways dollar day, anything can happen, so remember to sell at resistance and buy at support.
Crude Oil Futures
We have crude oil coming off the highs over a week ago, so here we are this morning on crude oil with OPEX ahead of us, sideways dollar, and plenty of things to be concerned with on this 89-range chart.
we see FIVE things:
  1. Short term bearish price channel in pink trend lines
  2. Short term wedge pattern in yellow trend lines
  3. Long term bullish price channels in green trend lines
  4. sideways trading range
  5. big round number of 100.00
we have to assume there will be a lot of sideways ranges with OPEX this week, lots of traders waiting for OTHER people to make the decisions first.

we can see the 100.00 level staring at us this morning, which is something we need to be carefull about

first, we need to stay away from the 100.00 area, this is grand daddy of big round number.

second, we are in the sideways range, so sell the highs and buy the lows.  avoid the middle of the sideways trading range.

third, we want to sell the highs and buy the lows of the bearish price channel in pink trend lines.  Sell 100.87, and buy the 97.00

we cant forget about the massive price wedge in yellow trend lines.  buy the lows of the wedge at 99.50, and take profit at levels of resistance overhead.

we can use the minor blue trend line to define the top of the wedge, so sell the highs of the wedge around 100, but beware trading around that big round number.

We find ourselves at the highs of the wedge, and the highs of the sideways range, and if it werent for the big round number of 100 this would be an easy shoert position.

We can see the BIG Picture on the 89range chart we see three main things:
  1. Wedge pattern in yellow and green trend lines
  2. Price channel in Green trend lines
  3. Major support around 1400.0

Lets zoom in closer to a faster timeframe for the best look at this chart today.  use the same levels from the 89range, but now we see MORE of this price action:

we can see a few important things:

  1. Price Wedge, we are at the highs
  2. Bearish Price chanel in green trend lines
  3. PHOD and PLOD

Sell the highs of the price wedge, selling 1429.0, 14530, 1433.5
Buy the lows of the wedge, buying 1409.5, 1406.5, 1400.0

We want to sell the highs of the price channel in green trend lines around 1429.2, 1433.5

we also need to watch the previous HOD and previous LOD, which will act like a price margnet.  Sell the PHOD at 1433.5, and buy the PLOD at 1418..2

we then take one more look at this 34range chart and see short term bullish price channel in ORANGE trend lines, and this now becomes our most recent pattern, so we need to look at first.

buy the lows of 1422.7, sell the highs of 1441.7, and look to avoid the middle.

with a bullish price channel, we can now assume the higher percetnage trades will be LONG side.
wait for price to break new highs and buy a pullback, or wait for price to fall and buy with a price reversal pattern at support.

    schooloftrade

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