March 16, 2011

Day Trading Morning Prep Gold, Crude Oil, Dollar Index, Euro, E-mini Russell Futures

‘We are what we repeatedly do.  Excellence, therefore, is not an act, but a habit’ – Aristotle
Let’s begin our morning routine with the economic news for today’s trading session.
8:20 Gold & Currencies OPEN
8:30 Housing Starts

9:00 Crude Oil OPEN
9:30 US Market OPEN
11:00 Transition into Lunch
11:30 European Close / Live Webinar in our Trade Room
Looking at today’s news we have early news at 830am and then late news at 1030am.  This will hopefully give us some early volume, but like we have seen lately, we may be seeing low volume in the middle of the morning while traders wait for the news later at 1030am.
We will certainly be watching crude oil closely today, expecting the personality to change before and after 1030am news.
The big deal today is Wacky Wednesday.  We see traders taking action this morning ahead of OPEX, resulting in high levels of volume at unexpected times.
Traders will be managing their portfolios today through the end of the week, which shows large blocks of buying and selling that may NOT have any apparent reason at all.
We will be watching closely today to see how the volume looks, making sure to look for DOUBLE CONFIRMATION on the patterns we see.
Lets take a look at the markets we’re watching this morning…
The dollar index is giving us a warning this morning already…with this narrowing price wedge pattern.
Notice the lower highs and higher lows.  Im also going to watch the speed around the highs and lows of the wedge, looking for higher speed in the MIDDLE of the wedge to confirm this concern.
Look for the dollar to test the highs or the lows for the best price action today, and remember to keep an eye on the  average true range (ATR).
Crude Oil Futures
Crude Oil futures gave us new lows on tuesday and now we see some easy trading opportunities this morning with the following.
  • remember we have 1030am news for crude today
  • Massive bearish price channel in yellow trend lines
  • Wedge pattern in yellow trend lines
  • Short term bearish price channel in blue
  • Sideways range from 100.00 down to 96.00
  • Previous HOD/LOD

We are in a long term bearish price channel in the yellow trend lines, and you can see a support trend line that also creates a nice wedge pattern from 96.00 up to 100.00

We also see a short term price channel in blue trend lines most recently, and we cant ignore the previous highs and lows of the day from tuesday.

We are trading at the highs of the short term price channel, so looking to sell the 99.00 first.  From there im looking to sell the highs of the wedge around 100.00.

if price keep pushing through 100.0 im looking to sell at overhead resistance as price rises.

if price falls from these highs, hopefully we can grab the short from 99.00 but i will look to buy support on the way down to the lows.

Look to buy the lows of the sideways range, the lows of the wedge, and the lows of the short term price channel around 96.00, so we will keep an eye on that level for buying opportunities.

the gold futures coming off new lows from tuesday and it gives us a few things to watch:

  • Massive wedge pattern in yellow trend lines
  • Short term bullish price channel in blue trend lines
  • PHOD and PLOD, and we are inside these levels

One thing we see right away is we are in the MIDDLE of all three of these, and we need to avoid trading the middle.  Sell the highs, buy the lows, wait for a breakout, but avoid the middle.

The price channel in blue will be our first priority, sell the highs around 1411, using the BMT line as resistance for the short trade.  We will also buy the lows *support* at 1400 if price drops to the lows of this bullish channel.

Bullish channel = long side is the higher % side

next, we see the PHOD and PLOD above and below us.  I look sell the PHOD and buy the PLOD.  Im goign to sell the 1417.5, 1429.3, and buy the 1380.7 and 1373.3

We are trading INSIDE the range from tuesday which makes us think the traders on gold are looking for some direction.

and we cant forget about the massive wedge.  sell the highs of the wedge around 1420, 1429, 1431, all the way up.

buy the lows of the wedge around 1386, 1380, 1368 all the way down.

remember this simple rule…as price drops we buy at support, and if price rises we sell at resistance.

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