March 17, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Momentum and MACD Indicators on Crude Oil made me do it!
815am est
– The dollar ATR is scary this morning
– Falling average true range = narrow price action = more challenging trades today
– We want the ATR rising, not falling
– The dollar index is in a strong downtrend on the 13range chart
– We see lower highs and lower lows, along with a steep slope of the trigger line
– This strong trend on the dollar DOWN, means we should be looking for buying opportunities on the markets we trade.
– Remember the dollar MAY reverse direction if it hits support, so keep an eye on the 13range chart to see which direction its moving NOW.
830am est
– The speed of the tape on crude oil, gold, anything today will be a major concern
– We’ve seen lack of consistent speed all week (as expected)
– Fast speed gets you excited for a trade, but then we see slow speed immediately afterwards that kills our confidence.
– My biggest worry today is that lack of volume and the big round 100.00 and 1400 levels on gold and crude will be sloppy and indecisive today.
– We want to get as far from these levels as possible.
– Wait for new highs and sell the highs, wait for the pullback above the new highs,
– The dollar is dropping = we want to buy
900am est
– Crude oil futures are showing very fast going from overbought to oversold territory
– We always have to beware trading when the markets go from overbought to oversold QUICKLY
– This tells us the markets is weak, narrow trading ranges, and we need to be patient for a better time to trade.
– We took two swings at the crude oil wave long @ 900am and only got a bunch of sloppy speed and price action
– Now we wait to see what the CL 04-11 does after the 9am open
930am est
– The US markets open very quiet this morning in the pre market
– The USD is looking to drop to new lows
– We want to look for buying opportunities if that happens
1000am est
– We’re staying patient for the best price action
– We want to take some trades, but this market is so slow right now
– 10am news came out much higher than expected, but we didn’t see much move off it
– We see the crude oil 34range chart shows us at the highs, we want to sell the highs, but we also notice the MOMENTUM indicator has gone from oversold to overbought in a very short period of time. This is very concerning on the 34range chart.
1010am est
– The markets are slow because
– Quad witching
– End of Q1
– DST US
– Spring Break here in the US
– Tax Time in the US
– St Patricks day
– No news tomorrow
– Japan
