March 23, 2011

Day Trading Morning Prep Gold, Crude Oil, Dollar Index, Euro, E-mini Russell Futures

‘We are what we repeatedly do.  Excellence, therefore, is not an act, but a habit’ – Aristotle
Let’s begin our morning routine with the economic news for today’s trading session.
8:20 Gold & Currencies OPEN
9:00 Crude Oil OPEN
9:30 US Market OPEN
11:00 Transition into Lunch
11:30 European Close / Live Webinar in our Trade Room
12:00 Ben Bernnake Speaks
Looking at the news this morning its a wednesday so we are watching crude oil for the inventories at 1030am, and we also see that Bernanke is speaking end of the morning.
Crude Oil may be sloppy this morning before the news, and with end of Q1 apon us this could be a rough day on crude oil, but we will see how it looks once it opens.
Keep an eye out for volume to drop ahead of bernanke speaking, and remember the european close isnt until 1230pm EST until the 27th of March so volume at 1130 wont be there.
Lets take a look at the charts we’re watching this morning…
The dollar index bounced (as expected) off support at the lows of the price channel in yellow trend lines.  Now the dollar is looking a little sideways after bouncing off minor resistance below 76.00
Time will tell what happens next…will the DX break the 76.00 and keep rising, or will it return to new lows and re-test the 75.505 level again?
Remember the simple Dollar Index Futures Correlation when watching this chart today.  If the dollar rises to new highs we look to sell gold, crude, euro, es, russell, etc.  The opposite is true if the dollar sells off…we will look to buy the markets we trade.
sideways market on the dollar looks like we will see sideways ranges on other markets, so focus on buying the lows and selling the highs.
Crude Oil Futures
Crude Oil Futures have broken to new highs this morning, leaving the old wedge pattern behind and looking for new levels today.
I see a few important things to consider:
  • Price Wedge
  • Price Channel
  • Overhead Resistance
  • Previous HOD / LOD

The first thing I notice is that we’ve broken the highs of the massive price wedge in thich yellow trend lines.  This wedge will try and draw price back DOWN below 103.00 so I will be looking to sell below 103.00 to enter back into this wedge.

I now see a price channel forming on this 34range chart.  I used my 89range as my guide to draw the thick dotted yellow trend lines to define the highs of the price channel.

Bullish price channel = buy at support using a pullback, which is exactly what we will be looking to do.  With the dollar on the fall we can look for easy pullbacks inside this upward trend for easy trading opportunities.

One easy way to trade a price channel is to sell the highs first for a short term scalp short, and then look for new highs to be made, wait to buy a pullback after you see the new highs, take profit at the next level of resistance, and repeat the process.

I also notice we have major resistance overhead at 106.50 so keep that in mind for a final target, or a place to look for a short entry on a price reversal.

and lastly, remember to keep an eye on the PHOD and PLOD, they will always act like magnets.  We are above the PHOD but it looks like we may get a chance to sell < PHOD.

I will always be looking to buy support and sell resistance using the PHOD and PLOD so keep an eye on those levels as well.

Gold Futures

We see the gold futures have broken the bearish price channel and now trading in a sideways range looking for more direction.  will it rise to test the swing highs from earlier this month or will it fall to drop back into the channel or the wedge.

very similar to crude oil, we see a few important things on gold:

  • Price Wedge
  • Bearish Price Channel
  • Sideways Range
  • Overhead Resistance

First thing i notice is we have broken the price wedge, which will attract prices to re-enter the wedge from the highs.  I will be looking to sell the highs of the wedge below 1419.5

Bearish price channel is also below the 1419.5, so I will also look to sell below that level, getting us into the highs of the price channel.

Next i see the sideways range, and this is clearly a market looking for direction after a breakout.  We want to sell the highs and buy the lows of a sideways range.

I will also buy a pullback if we break above 1435.0 and I will be a seller first as price rises.  So im selling resistance on the way up, and then keep an eye on new highs to buy a pullback.

The same is true if price drops.  Im buying support first, selling the retracement if we see new lows.

I also noticed major resistance from previous swing highs at 1441.7 and 1445.7, which were also confirmed by our auto levels indicator, so look to sell these levels of resistance, and then look to buy a pullback if we break new highs above them.

Euro Currency Futures

E-mini Russell Futures

    schooloftrade

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