March 24, 2011

When the US Dollar Index Correlation Fails

830am est
–          News came out mixed
–          Jobs and durable come out as expected, so the market continues to search for direction
–          Dollar is dropping off support, so we look for buying opportunities on the markets we trade
900am est
–          We grab the 21range wave short on crude oil, but I chased after it, got in late and took a small loss on the trade
–          The second trade on gold was a winner, not much movement, still very slow, but a winner
–          We now see the dollar holding support at 76.00 and this now possibly changes the opinion of the rest of the day
–          If the dollar begins to RISE, we now need to look at the SELL side as the high % side
–          This is not set in stone, right now the dollar needs to PROVE to us where its headed next.
910am est
–          The biggest challenge we have is within ourselves this morning
–          We haven’t been given the opportunity to take many trades this week
–          Its up to US to keep focused on following the rules
–          We see momentum overbought and oversold at the WORST possible times right now
–          It seems that speed is always slow
–          But we have to wait for the best times, when speed is increasing, when we see BIG MONEY on the tape, and when momentum lines up.
930am est
–          The dollar index has now broken the resistance overhead and now rising full steam ahead
–          The low volume is still a concern
–          But this moving dollar is definitely a good sign
–          Hopefully this rising dollar will give us selling opportunities on the markets we trade
1100am est
–          Took a fast track winner for the day today
–          I took my final trade on the gold this morning and after seeing a ton of speed, all buyers, and the dollar dropping, I moved my target above where I would usually place it to try and see if the gold would move more.
–          I learned a VALUABLE lesson this morning on this trade.  When times are slow, take your money and run!
–          Getting greedy is only when we have consistent speed
–          We’re concerned now that 830am FRIDAY GDP news is now going to have people leaving the morning session early
–          Beware the end of the morning coming on earlier than expected

Click Here To Review Our Automated Trading Results From This Morning

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