April 14, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Get me out of here now!
Reviewing gold futures this morning @ 8am est
– Sideways range in the white box tells us to buy the lows and sell the highs
– Bullish Price channel which tells us the buy-side will likely be the high % trade today
– We also notice the PHOD has been broken, and the PLOD has not. We always expect the PLOD/PHOD to be price-magnets, and seeing the PHOD broken earlier this morning gives us a clue to support the assumption of rising prices.
– Sideways range = anything can happen so I have no real directional bias.
– We have very clear major resistance overhead at 68.5 and major support below at 1445.0
– Plan of attack on gold today
– If price rises:
o Selling first, buying second as price rises today
o Selling the PHOD which is the highs of the wedge
o Selling the highs of the range at 59.1 (higher risk), 65.0 is the high of the sideways market, and then selling the highs of 68.5, 69.9, 72.6
o If prices keep rising sharply through resistance I will then consider buying pullbacks.
o I don’t buy the highs
o If price drops
§ Beware the 1453.0 area is the top of the wedge below us, so this will be sloppy
§ Buying 1452.0 as support and the PLOD
§ Buying 50.9, 48.6, 47.7, etc with major support im looking to buy at 45.0 which is also the low of the major bearish channel.
§ If prices drop sharply through support I will then consider selling a retracement
§ I don’t sell the lows
830am est
– Jobless claims come out higher than expected
– PPI is flat
– Crude trading around the 106.00 area so we are cautious
– We have gold trading sideways and waiting for the speed to increase
– We check the dollar index and the dollar is also sideways trading, but we notice the average true range has higher lows and higher highs which gives us clues for wider ranges coming soon
– So we know our patience will pay off b/c the ATR is rising.
925am est
– We’ve had three trades today, 2 scratches and 1 winner on crude oil
– We’ve had nothing to trade on the gold with very slow speed and in the middle of a wedge
– Now the US open is here and we have crude oil finally above 106.00 area, and we know if we go back down to 106.00 again we need to be careful
– Let’s take this opportunity to plan our trades on gold and crude oil
– Gold Futures
o Price wedge and sideways market
o If price rises im selling the PHOD and the highs of the wedge at 63.7, selling the HOD at 65.0, and then selling the 1468.5 which is the highs of the channel.
o If price rises im selling first, then buying pullbacks with new higher highs above resistance.
o If price falls im buying first, and then selling retracements 2nd.
o Im buying 54.7 but beware that is the 34r BMT which is very sloppy
o Buying 53.2 the LOD and the lows of the channel.
o Buying 52.0, 90.9, 48.6.
– Crude Oil Futures
– We see a new wedge pattern form on the 34range chart.
– We’re at the highs of this wedge and we have major support just below us that we must break before we can sell these highs
1000am est
– We finally got some new highs above the PHOD on gold and crude oil and we made money buy buying pullbacks at new swing highs.
– We will now look to see where price goes next….will it keep rising? If so, buying pullbacks, or will it reverse and head back down? If so, selling retracements and selling at resistance.
1030am est
– We’re waiting for Nat Gas Inventories to be released
– Meanwhile we’ve had a very busy day, lots of pattern, and trading from lows to the highs on crude oil.
– We need to pay close attention to the personality of the market, it’s clearly charged after 10am est today
– It feels like the buyers on gold and crude oil worked SO HARD to push price up to the highs that now the markets are exhausted and looking for a break, or some more direction from the news @ 1030
1045am est
– We have a definitely different market than we saw @ 900am this morning, so lets be careful.
