April 15, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
When knowing everything doesn’t matter day trading crude oil
Reviewing Crude Oil Futures
– Bullish Price Channel tells us to buy pullbacks
– Sideways range tells us to sell the highs and buy the lows in the white box
– Narrow price wedge tells us to sell the highs and buy the lows of the wedge
– The BMT line @ 107.50 shows the line in the sand between the buyers and the sellers in control
– If we break below 107.00 we think 106.00 could be in the cards, and that is a sloppy transitional level from earlier this week we need to be careful around.
– We also know that the sideways range gets very concerning once we end below the PHOD from Wednesday which is 107.50
– If we trade below 107.50 we now consider this to be a very narrow trading range, which will add to our concerns.
– The key here at this time is to avoid the middle of this wedge, and stay patient to wait for the highs or the lows to be tested.
840am est
– We had flat news @ 830am today and the markets are responding slowly
– We see gold giving us patterns to trade, however, those patterns are showing lack of speed at the time of entry, and then the speed picks up once the move has come to a close.
– This tells us the BIG MONEY is sitting on hands, and the SMALL MONEY is chasing after the move.
900am est
– We continue to navigate through the news around 900am
– We still see lack of speed on the gold, this is mostly caused by the dollar lack of speed and range
– We are watching the dollar VERY closely to make sure it does not start to ‘wedge’ and if it does we gotta break out the sunblock and start the weekend! J
– The biggest concern is speed, and lack of consistent speed
915am est
– We notice that crude oil is trading around the BMT on all timeframes
– We don’t want to trade around the BMT if we can avoid it, its very sloppy.
– BMT = Big Money Trigger Line = Your profit target, NOT your stop loss
945am est
– We’re waiting for these markets to wake up
– We’re waiting for 955am news consumer confidence
– We’ve had 1 trade so far today for a +5/-5 scratch on crude oil futures.
Lets plan our attack on Gold:
– Sideways range is the most important thing right now
– Bullish channel, so buying at support = high %
– If price rises:
o Selling at resistance first @ 79.3 and up to sell the 80.5 the PHOD
o If prices keep rising I will then buy a pullback after seeing new higher highs
– If price drops:
o Buying support as price drops @ 73.1, 72.2, 71.1 which is also the lows of the bullish channel.
o If price keeps making new lower lows I will then sell a retracement
o Im buying 67.3 support and 63.3 if price can get down that far.
1100AM EST
– What did we learn today?
– We need rising, increasing speed to see the best profit
– Slowing and falling speed is always going to open the door for a price reversal
– Price channels make excellent profit targets
– Failures are very important because they often end up in a HUGE move in the opposite direction
– I tried that twice today, and 1 was a scratch and 1 was a BIG winner.
