April 20, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Sellers Failed at Highs, Tape Reading tells me to buy at support
Is this OPEX week?
OPEX = 3rd Friday of the Month, unless the first day of the month is a Friday.
This month OPEX will be NEXT week, so Wacky Wednesday is going to have to wait!.
810am est
Let’s review our Gold Futures this morning
– 89range chart shows us above the sideways range from Monday and Tuesday
– We also see the highs of the price channel have been tested, and we appear to be coming off the highs slightly
– This is a simple plan: sell the highs of the channel, sell the highs of the sideways range
– We move to a faster timeframe, the 34range and we see the following:
o PHOD and PLOD are below us, making this a bullish sentiment and an outside day
o Bullish Price channel
o 1500 major big round number
o Slowing of the upward trend (more recent channels are flatter)
– Lets plan our attack on Gold today:
o Need to wait for better speed, the market is dead this time of the morning, but that can change very quickly
o We know the 1500 area will be tough to trade
o Lots of people looking for direction…are we going to keep rising or will we fall?
o Bullish channel says buyers in control
o Im not buying at highs, im waiting to buy pullbacks as prices rise
o Im looking to sell first as prices rise at resistance at the top of the price channels, but we don’t have any clear levels of overhead resistance because of this un-chartered territory
o Once we get below the 1500 level today we should see sellers enter the market, and this is where we can look to sell retracements.
o As prices fall im buying first, selling second
o Buying support at 93.8, 90.3, 88.2, 84.0
o Im buying the PHOD first, and then selling below the PHOD
o Im not selling at support, im waiting for new lower lows and then selling a retracement
o Im using the lows of the price channels as major support to buy
o Im using the highs of the price channels as profit targets and areas of resistance to sell.
855am est
– We check the dollar index and the 06-11 is trading into the highs of the strong bearish price channel that we’ve had for months now
– This dollar should keep dropping, which further confirms our assumption of rising prices on gold, and gives us clarity on the best direction for crude oil
– REMEMBER!!!! Its not what the dollar DID, its what the dollar is DOING.
– What has the dollar done RECENTLY has nothing to do with whats going on NOW.
– Are we rising NOW? If so, selling other markets
– The dollar dropped the past few days, but lets not forget its what the dollar is doing NOW
– It trading sideways after the big fall, which is resulting in this sideways markets on gold, crude, Russell, etc
905am est
Our plan on crude oil:
– Falling dollar = buying opportunities on crude oil
– Buying pullbacks as prices rise to new higher highs
– The bullish price channel we want to buy the lows at 109.0 and use the highs of the channel as a profit target
– Sell the highs of the wedge below 109.00
– I will also sell the 109.79 highs of the recent trading range
– It all depends on the SPEED and personality of the market
– At 900am the speed is sloppy and the price action does NOT look friendly.
– 1030am news to watch for a well
945am est
– We took our first trade of the day on crude oil after seeing the buyers fail on the 34range wave long
– We’re at the highs of the range, the highs of the wedge, and we have to look to sell the highs
– We tried to get in a little early, should have waited below 109.00 for the wide open space below us.
– We got bounced out of the first trade after the major resistance keeps holding.
– Lets wait and see, but right now the price action says SELLERS IN CONTROL, but not by much.
1125am est
– We’re trying to stay positive, but the crude oil charts are not making it very easy on us today
– Its not US against the MARKET, its US working with the market, so keep your emotions at bay
– We continue to see sloppy indecisive price action
– 3 ticks lower lows with lots of sellers, and then price bounces 15 ticks back up and stops you out
– We saw the bad personality REALLY early today
– In the future, you now know what a bad day looks like well in advance
