Goldman Sachs & The Dollar Index made us profit today, here’s how

We have 2 news events this morning at 10am, New Home Sales will be the big one, but Richmond Fed Index will be used to interpret the crude oil inventories later in the week. I will use the Dollar Index (read the tape) to interpret the market reaction when we have 2 news events in the same timeframe (10:00am est). The Dollar is in a bear price channel on the 13range chart We got news from Goldman Sachs overnight about rising commodity prices. This made it easy for us to make a simple plan of attack. Review the Slow Timeframe on Crude Oil: NO CAD News today, and no inventories until Wednesday. Price Wedge, same from last week. High is 99.50 and the lows 97.00 Sideways Range from 100.44 down to 96.37 Bear Price Channel, we are at the highs at 99.50 and the lows at 92.00 BMT is above us at 99.83 which will act like a price magnet. Great final target, poor entry location. Review the Faster Timeframe on Crude oil: Inside the wedge, sell the highs and buy the lows Outside the wedge, buying pullbacks with new highs and selling at resistance overhead. If price rises: I’m selling resistance first, then look to buy pullbacks. I do not buy at the highs, I wait for pullbacks. Avoid the 99.85 BMT, 100.00 Big Round number Sell the highs of the sideways range at 100.37-100.44 I will then look to buy pullbacks if we make new highs above 100.44 I will sell the highs of the Bull Channel If price falls: Im buying support first, then selling new lower lows with retracements. I do not sell the lows, I wait for new lows and then a retracement. I will be careful trading around the highs of the wedge @ 99.45 because its been very sloppy already this morning. (we would normally not worry) Im buying 99.25 34r trigger line for 34r wave long Buying the PHOD at 99.12 Buy the lows of the bull channel at 99.20 which is also the highs of the major 89range wedge. Sell the new lower lows below the PHOD as a sign of the buyers failing and the sellers taking price down from the highs. Below 99.12 we are in the previous day’s trading range, which will draw price down to the OPEN and BMT around 98.35 Our plan of attack on crude oil: Trading inside the wedge, buy the lows and sell the highs of the wedge. As price rises we buy pullbacks (the DX bear channel helps with this) Sell the highs of the Price Wedge at 99.50 Avoid the 89Range BMT at 99.83 935am est The dollar is dropping, but has gone sideways at the Previous Low of Day, this is a sign of indecision on the Dollar Index which will result in lack of direction on the markets we like to trade most. All signs still point to buying pullbacks with new higher highs, but right now we may have to wait for some more direction from the dollar and then let the markets react accordingly. 1000am est We get new home sales rising at 10am which should be dollar bullish. We also have Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index drastically lower, and this is a big red flag. The past two weeks we had the Empire Manufacturing, the Philly Fed Manufacturing, and now the Manuf report from Richmond, VA is lower. This tell us that the manufacturing sectors in the US have been slowing down drastically. Fewer products being shipped, consuming less Nat Gas and Crude Oil. Im going to use this as a guide when trading crude oil inventories later in the week. 1035am est We have found the bull price channels using the 13 and 34r charts, and its interesting how we still had the same results even not seeing that channel. We knew we wanted to buy: – Dollar Dropping – Open > PHOD – We broke above the highs of the Wedge – New Higher Highs – The 100.00 is a big price magnet It also appears we have a few price magnets below us, which make for a late morning move: – Everything is below us! – BMT, OPEN – PHOD-PLOD – Price Wedge 1055am est The markets are changing…no longer getting the consistency, we see less moves, and slower speed. We know the dead zone is after the news this morning and before the European markets close. Lets wait patiently and take the next high % trade in the best AREA we can find. Where are the next HIGH % trades going to be? – Buy the lows of the price channel at 99.20 – Buy the PHOD at 99.12 – If we break the below the PHOD we then assume sellers in charge, we look to sell. – I don’t have much interest in the upside until we break well above the 100.00 – Above 100.00 I will then buy pullbacks. 1115am est We need to wait for price to clear the 100.00 area and the 89range BMT Look to buy pullbacks with new highs above the 100.05 but beware this market is whippy. We want to wait now for the European close to possibly bring in some more volume and solid direction. 12:00pm EST Price tests the PHOD, looking to sell the PHOD below 99.00 now that we see buyers fail at the lows of the channel.