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Fear in Europe continues to move the US Dollar as Gold stabilizes and Crude oil demand continues to fall

Officials in Europe have failed to agree on a plan to rescue Greece, which has cause the Euro to tumble today, giving traders no choice but to move into Gold and the US Dollar Index overnight. This caused the Dollar Index to jump off the highs of our transition area we discussed in our trade room on Monday and Tuesday this week (see DX 13Range below).

I see this move on the dollar as a clear sign of strength compared to other currencies, and also the dollar has a clear  trading range is from 75.000 down to 74.500 and we will be sure to use this important information in the future.

Crude Oil futures are feeling more selling pressure this morning as continued fears from Europe, China, and the US have demand at record lows for the consumption of crude oil.  OPEC has been playing around with different ideas for supply and demand, and today’s Crude Oil inventories will certainly be something everyone will be watching. 

Gold Futures have stabilized with the dollar showing signs of support.  Remember that most investors will use Gold as a hedge against a falling US Dollar Index, and now the Dollar has jumped up on the fears out of Europe, most investors are not using Gold as an alternative investment right now.  This is causing Gold to continue in a downtrend, however, day traders will be watching for signs of s price reversal because many traders still see long term gold prices rising.

Looking at the news this morning we have a lot to look at…

First, today is Wacky Wednesday of OPEX, and this is Quadruple Witching week so this will be all the more important to be aware of.  Today will be classified as having large, unexpected orders entering the market at  times that do not makes sense, thus confusing traders as to when to enter, exit, or sit on hands.  The hardest part of trading Wednesday of OPEX is not over-trading.  There is usually decent volume, but again, this volume is coming into the market for different reasons than we usual see.  We will discuss more of this in our live trade room today.

We have three major news events at 830am est today.  We start with Manufacturing news out of Canada which will undoubtedly affect crude oil futures early this morning.

We then have US news, CPI and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey.  CPI will affect inflation which will make Gold move, and manufacturing surveys here in the US and in Canada will greatly impact how people read the Crude Oil Inventories news later this morning.

900am est brings Treasury International Capital (Long term TIC Flows) which will be another inflation tool for traders, and then at 915am we have Industrial Production which again will be on the minds of Crude Oil traders as it will impact the manufacturing sector.

We then move through the 930am US Market Open into the news at 1000am Housing Market Index which will not be that important today compared to the 1030am Crude Oil Inventories which will be on everyone’s minds.  Remember that we will be reviewing the previous manufacturing surveys to interpret this news release after 1030am est.

One of the most important things today will be watching the 3 Phases of Crude Oil Inventories.  I will review this again in our live trade room.

Working on charts now..

    schooloftrade

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    Anonymous - June 15, 2011 Reply

    We then have a very simple plan of attach using the Dollar Index Futures:
    • If the dollar rises I’m selling retracements and selling at resistance with the markets I trade.
    • If the dollar trades sideways I will then look to trade INSIDE the range we are in on the markets I trade.
    • If the dollar drops to new lower lows I will be looking to buy at support and buy pullbacks with higher highs.

    Anonymous - June 15, 2011 Reply

    My plan of attack on crude oil this morning:
    – Inside day means Im looking to trade inside the range we are in. Avoid the fake-out breakouts. Sell the highs, buy the lows, avoid the middles.
    – We have inventories, so I will not be trading after 1015am est today, and will wait till after 1035am to enter the market.
    – Bear price channel says to keep selling new lower lows with retracements
    – However, the inside day tells us to be careful with trading the breakouts.
    – Slight bearish bias, but very selective with the breakout trades we take.
    – If price falls im buying at support first, and then selling retracements on the way down.
    – If price rises im selling at resistance first, and then buying pullbacks on the way up.
    – Never buy the highs
    – Never sell the lows
    – Avoid the middles.
    More specifically:
    If price rises im selling 99.00, buying pullbacks above 99.10
    I’m selling the highs of the wedge around 99.20, selling the PHOD at 99.69, and avoid the no trade zone above it.
    If price falls I’m buying support at 98.20, I’m being very careful around 98.00 (we saw this last week and confirmed again very sloppy on Tuesday)
    As prices keep falling I’m buying support at 97.83, 97.40, and 97.10. buying the support first (inside day) and then with new lower lows that support becomes resistance and we sell retracements using that resistance.

    Anonymous - June 15, 2011 Reply

    Lets plan our attack on gold futures today:
    If price rises I’m selling resistance first (inside day) and then with new higher highs I will then buy a pullback.
    As price rises I’m selling the channel highs at 1525.0, selling the PHOD at 1529.0, and avoid the BMT at 1529.5
    If we make new higher highs I will then buy pullbacks above 1530.4 and sell the highs of that range at 1533.4.
    More locations to sell overhead (or take profit) will be at 1534.8, 1537.5, and 1539.4
    If prices fall im buying at support first (inside day) and then selling new lower lows with retracements.
    If price falls I’m buying 1516.6 support, and then the LOD at 1514.5 and the PLOD at 1512.8, and then buying 1511.4 as the range lows.
    More support levels to buy (or take profit) will be 1508.4 and 1504.4, 1500 is the low of the major bull price channel.

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