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US Dollar shows weakness as Traders prepare for FOMC and Home Sales Data; Crude Oil rises off recent lows

The overnight session was quiet last night with Greece no longer in the spotlight (for now at least) and the Father’s around the US getting back to the markets after Father’s Day Holiday on Sunday.

The US Dollar is on the minds of traders this morning ahead of two very important news events today and into tomorrow.

We begin with the start of the FOMC Meeting today, which will have the actual announcement released tomorrow at 12:00pm EST (remember this is the new format).

The beginning of the FOMC meeting really isn’t that important, today should trade just like any other day, but tomorrow will be one to really watch for, and we will review that more closely on Wednesday.

The only major economic news this morning is after the US markets open at 930am est today, with 10:00 Existing Home Sales news.

Existing home sales in April declined 0.8 percent to a 5.05 million annual unit rate. On a year-ago basis, sales are 12.9 percent. Supply on the market ballooned to 9.2 months at the current sales rate compared to 8.3 months in March. See chart

Existing Home Sales Data SchoolOfTrade.com
Take a look at the chart posted above of the Existing Home sales data for the last 3 years and we draw trend lines to mark resistance, showing that a technical analysis of this news SHOULD (key word) see lower levels, and certainly some resistance to higher readings.  How would a professional traders USE this info to make profits? 

This news should be dollar BEARISH with lower than expected readings, however, you know how we treat the news…cant predict, only react.

This is interesting to speculate, but day traders use this news info…we wait for the reaction from the market and then we trade with educated decisions, we don’t predict, we react.

After our 10am news this morning we don’t have much to look for until the 1130am European close will be likely to bring in some late morning volume, which will be expected to taper quickly afterwards ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Day.
Lets look at the charts we’re watching this morning…

The dollar is trading in the middle of its range this morning, just above our transitional area, which we also call our ‘trigger zones’ (see the advanced course information on this topic).  Remember the US Dollar index is a very strong correlation to the markets we trade and we will be using this throughout the day today.

US Dollar Index SchoolofTrade.com

CrudeOil futures are trading sideways this morning, rising off their recent new lower, and trying to decide where it wants to go from here.

You can see we’ve broken the bearish price wedge in the yellow trend lines above 96.00 so we have that to look forward to if we break back above that big round number.

The big question will be whether the CL 08-11 wants to push new swing highs up to the 95.75 range highs, or if it will drop off the highs of 94.60 back down to its lows at 92.60 and 91.50, possibly down to the lows of the price channel we are currently trading in.
Crude Oil 08-11 89Range SchoolOfTrade.com
Momentum appears to be overbought on this 89Range chart (bottom of the chart) so it look like prices should hold inside this range from 94.60 down to 91.50, but we will always wait to see what price action looks like before we enter any trades this morning.

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    Click Here to Leave a Comment Below

    Anonymous - June 21, 2011 Reply

    Our 34range chart shows us the following:
    – Inside day, below the PHOD and above the PLOD
    – Inside day says to trade inside the range you are in. avoid the fake-out breakout and look to buy support, sell resistance, and avoid the middles.
    – Bull Channel off the recent lows
    – Bull price wedge off the recent swing highs
    – Sideways ranges were from the 89range chart
    Our plan of attack on crude oil futures this morning @ 930am est:
    – Inside day tells me to trade inside the range we are in.
    – Buying at support, selling at resistance, and being extra cautious with breakouts, avoid the fake-out breakout.
    – Bull channel on crude and the bear channel on the dollar tell me to look for buying at support as the high percentage trades today.
    As price falls:
    – Buying support and then selling as support turns into resistance using a retracement.
    – I do not sell the lows, I buy the lows, or at least we try first.
    – Avoiding the OPEN at 94.00
    – Buying the low of day at 93.81
    – Buying support 93.64, and the lows of the bullish price channel
    – Buying 93.40 support
    – Avoid 93.00 big round number
    – If price keeps dropping we buy support at 92.60
    – And avoid the previous open at 92.38 and avoid 92.00 BRN
    – Buy the PLOD at 91.51
    As price rises:
    – I’m selling first at resistance and then buying pullbacks with new higher highs
    – I’m buying above the PHOD (buyers will be in charge)
    – I’m selling at 94.80 the highs of the bear channel (13r)
    – Sell the wedge highs from the 21r blue trend lines 97.75
    – Sell the 94.95 resistance, highs of the range
    – Selling resistance overhead at 95.10, 95.75, 96.10
    – Avoid the big round number of 96.00 and beware trading around the lows of the wedge above us around 96.10-96.20
    – If we break through 96.20 then look to sell the highs of the 89range bear channel and the highs of the bull channel from the 34r chart.

    Anonymous - June 21, 2011 Reply

    dont forget…as price falls on crude oil to avoid the 94.27 34r chart BMT which will be very sloppy.

    tough to trade the CL beow 94.40 down to 94.00

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