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The Fed Rules out QE3, Lowers Growth Estimates, sending US Dollar Higher and Commodities Lower ahead of Jobless Claims

All eyes overnight were on the Fed and the FOMC Meeting that ended on Wednesday with a statement from the Fed.

The main talking points from Ben Bernanke were about the slowing pace of the recovery…

‘the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected’

It appears the jobs in the US are not recovering as quickly as they thought…

‘recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated’

And he made a very clear point on inflation, telling us it should only be in the short-term…

‘Inflation has picked up in recent months, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the recent supply chain disruptions. However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable’

The jobs situation in the US should improve over the next few months…

‘The unemployment rate remains elevated; however, the Committee expects the pace of recovery to pick up over coming quarters and the unemployment rate to resume its gradual decline

And he says they will finish QE2…with no mention of QE3?

‘The Committee will complete its purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of this month and will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings’

Read the whole statement here.

In review of this entire statement, keeping it in context with current market conditions, it appears the Fed has turned a little ‘bearish’ on the recovery (we knew it all along didn’t we?) and this is going to be on the minds of all the traders this morning.

Questions people will be asking…will there be a QE3?  Will commodities keep dropping as predicted?  Will the unemployment rate eventually drop?  Will the jobs report today confirm this?  As you can imagine, traders will be exploring all of these options until the next meeting.

One this is for certain…as day traders, swing traders, and position traders we trade the reaction, not the news itself, so we will be reading tape, looking for clues to the overall market sentiment after this major news this morning.  The beauty of our job in the markets every day is that we take pride in the fact that we focus on the reaction, and we don’t worry about trying to understand EVERYTHING, it doesn’t make us MONEY.

Looking ahead at the news this morning all eyes on are the Jobless Claims at 8:30am.

Jobless Claims SchoolOfTrade.com

Initial jobless claims for the June 11 week fell 16,000 to 414,000. The four-week average, though unchanged at 424,750, is more than 15,000 below where it was a month ago. Continuing claims also came down, dropping 21,000 to 3.709 million in data for the June 4 week with the unemployment rate for insured workers unchanged at 2.9 percent.

We’ve been watching the jobless claims report break its downtrend at the same time as the concerns over inflation, unemployment rate, manufacturing, housing and many other markets are in turmoil.  We are below the 4 week moving average for claims, however, we know that there are many other factors that make these higher jobless claims reports a very strong ‘leading indicator’ for possible problems coming down the road.

As a day trader I will be using this information along with the US Dollar Index to make trading decisions.  If the news is bearish for the USD I will be looking to buy Gold, Crude Oil, Euro, Russell, and other markets we trade.

We also have New Homes Sales report at 10:00 this morning, which is another hot topic on the minds of investors and traders here in the US and overseas.  The housing market is an excellent long term indicator of strength in our economy.  If people have jobs, and prices are low they can afford to buy homes, and right now the Government bailout money is drying up, the load programs (read as…’giveaways’) have gone away now, and most of the homes on the market are foreclosures…so traders and investors are watching these reports closely looking for signs of further deterioration or signs of a recovery down the road.

New Homes Sales SchoolOfTrade.com
New home sales in April jumped 7.3 percent, following an 8.3 percent increase the month before. But the advances were from low levels as the February number was a record low. April’s annualized sales pace of 323,000 units is down 23.1 percent on a year-ago basis. Importantly, April’s improvement drew down supply to 6.5 months from 7.2 in March and 7.9 in February and down from a recent high of 12.1 set in January 2009.

Looking at the end of the morning we have reason to believe traders will be hitting the exits early ahead of Friday’s GDP reading at 8:30.  We hope for a golden lunch, but with news early on Friday it is doubtful.  We may see some action from 11:30-12:00 but we will have to wait and see how price action looks at that time.

Working on charts now..

    schooloftrade

    Click Here to Leave a Comment Below

    Joseph James - June 23, 2011 Reply

    My plan of attack on Gold:
    If price rises:
    – Im selling resistance as price moves highs
    – Im then buying pullbacks once the resistance is broken and turns into support.
    – I don’t buy at the highs, I buy with pullbacks.
    – I’m selling 1527.7 34r trigger
    – I’m selling the highs of the strong bear price channel
    – Selling 1532.2
    – Avoiding the BMT 1536.3
    – Selling the PLOD at 1541.0
    – Then buying pullbacks with highs inside the range from Wednesday.
    – As price rises I’m selling first, then I will buy a pullback above the levels listed above.
    If price falls:
    – I’m buying at support levels first
    – Then I will sell with a retracement once the support turns into resistance
    – I do not sell at the lows, I will sell with a retracement.
    – Buying the lows of the strong bearish price channel
    – Buying 1518.3, 1514.5, 1511.4, 1509.8, 1508.4, 04.4
    – If price keeps dropping we can buy the lows of the 89range wedge at 1500.00

    JJ - June 23, 2011 Reply

    1100am

    Crude oil inside a sideways range, so we will trade the range first, and then look for breakouts.
    We also notice a sloppy bullish price channel on the 34r chart, so use this as your guide for buying pullbacks, if we get new higher highs.
    As price rises on crude oil im selling the 91.64, selling the range highs 91.86, avoid the 92.00 and sell the 92.21.
    Beware the 34r BMT is above us 92.56 and this will be an excellent target, but a horrible place to enter a new trade.
    If price falls on crude oil I’m buying support at the lows of the price channel and beware trading around the big round number of 91.00.
    We see the lows of the (89r) sideways range at 89.67. I also want to buy the lows of the bear channel at 90.00 but beware trading around the big round number.
    I’m buying support at 90.78, 90.62, 90.53, avoid 90.00, buying 89.89 and 89.69
    And as price breaks support and turns into resistance we then sell retracements.

    -Joseph James

    JJ - June 23, 2011 Reply

    1130
    Lets plan our Gold market…
    Gold futures are trading sloppy and slow around the 89range BMT.
    This tells me to be very careful, the BMT are always sloppy, they make great final profit targets, but BMT’s are NOT where I want to enter a trade.
    We’re at the lows of the price wedge, and the middle of the new sideways range of the 89range.
    and at the highs of the short term bearish price channel from the 34range chart.
    Our plan of attack on gold will be…
    As price rises im selling resistance, selling the channel highs 1521.0 and the 34r trigger line at the same level.
    Im selling the highs of the sideways range as price rises.
    Selling the extensions of the bear channel 23.0, 24.0, 25.0 and then sell 1526.3 the highs of the range.

    Joeph James

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