July 8, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
AB=CD Pattern Helped earn 230 ticks of Profit day trading NonFarm Payrolls
We will be looking for high percentage trades today, and those are when…
– High % Pattern
– At a High % Location
– At a High % time of the day
825am est
We prepare for 830am news by getting to know the personality of NonFarm Payrolls.
Now we review the dollar index futures
– Bull price channel
– Sideways range
– Ahead of major news
This tells me to wait patiently for the news to be released, and if the dollar makes new highs im looking to sell, if the dollar makes new lows im looking to buy, and if the dollar goes sideways I will also trade sideways buying the lows, selling the highs, and avoiding the fake-out breakouts.
If we had to assume, the highest % move would be HIGHER on the dollar (bull channel) and this will result in lower prices on the markets we trade, so look for selling opportunities.
830am est
NonFarm News is out..
– Unemployment rate .1% higher (dollar bearish)
– NonFarm Payrolls: dramatically lower (dollar bearish)
– Hourly earnings: .2% lower ((dollar bearish)
– Dollar Bearish = Bearish crude (less demand)
We buy the pullbacks with new higher highs on gold since the dollar news was bearish.
845am
Gold = outside day, buying pullbacks
Crude oil tumbles to the lows, we try to buy the lows, but very sloppy now.
We now see the formation of the bear price channel.
855am est
The dollar index trades in the middle of its range which is causing the gold to trade very sloppy after NFP news at 830am
We have a falling dollar so we are buying pullbacks with new highs on gold this morning.
Here’s my plan of attack going into the 900am hour.
Gold is rising, so keep buying pullbacks. Sell at resistance for short term reversals, and buy pullbacks or buy at support if price falls off the highs. The dollar is dropping we want to use that as our guide.
Sell 44.3 overhead, but then buy a pullback with new highs above it.
910am est
Sloppy price action after the news as the dollar chops around its BMT on the 89range chart.
We tried to buy pullbacks with new highs on gold but got chopped up b/c of lack of confidence in gold at the new highs.
Now we see crude at the lows of the channel and we want to buy these lows.
935am est
We review crude oil again now after the US Open (lets plan our attack)
– Bull price channel : buy support, buy pullbacks
– Sideways Range : buy the lows, sell the highs, avoid the middles.
– BMT = price magnet at 95.76
– No trade zone at 98.00
– Price Wedge : buy lows, sell highs, avoid the middle.
Our plan of attack on crude oil
If price falls:
– Im buying at support levels first
– Then with new lows I will sell the retracements
– Buying support 96.41 also the lows of the wedge
– Buying 96.07, 95.90, 95.27
– I will sell retracements once we break these support levels.
– I do not sell at the lows.
– Remember the AB=CD at 95.80 as major ‘hidden’ support
If price rises:
– Im selling at resistance first, then buying pullbacks once the resistance is broken and turns to support.
– I will sell 97.47 lows of the channel as resistance
– I will then buy above 97.50 getting us long at the lows of the price channel. Final target at 98.00
– I will then avoid the No trade zone from 97.85 up to 98.15
– With new highs above 98.15 I will buy pullbacks assuming we will have higher prices back up to 99.18 the highs from yesterday.
1030am est
Everything higher risk after 1030am this morning. Obama takes the spotlight, and it’s a summer Friday so the markets will be slower much sooner than normal.
