August 11, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Crude Oil Futures Price Channel & Double-Bottom trading Strategy hits our daily goal
CME raising margins on gold futures. This may cause excessive volatility as fewer traders can participate, which means less volume, and wider spreads, wider ranges on lower volume moves.
Crude Oil inventories were down, however, so was demand, so crude is transitioning around this 80.00 big round number.
Remember the 75.00 level is where OPEC goes under water. So OPEC loses money below 75.00/barrel.
Will traders be moving their money into Gold or into the US Dollar when they fear the Euro will keep dropping.
825am est
We wait for Jobless claims to come out and get this day started.
Crude Oil plan of attack is quite simple:
– Bull channel tells me to buy at support levels below me.
– If we make new highs i will buy pullbacks, with the next level of resistance as my target.
– I will avoid the BMT overhead 84.00 area.
– Inside day tells me to buy at support, sell at resistance, and beware the fake-out breakout.
– Inside day also tells me to expect the PLOD or PHOD to be tested this morning.
– Short term bear channel gives me selling opportunities at the highs, but keep an eye on the major support which is still the high % trade today.
835am est
Jobless claims came out below 400k, however we saw last week how they manipulated the number below 400k and then re-posted it higher the following week.
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 395K V 405KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.69M V 3.725ME- Prior Initial Claims revised lower from 405K to 402K – Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 3.73M to 3.75M – 4 week avg claims: 405K v 407.75K w/w **Insight: Initial jobless claims registered its first a sub-400K reading in 19 weeks (since mid-April)
Double-bottom on crude oil, tells us to sell the next major level of resistance at 81.94-82.05
915am est
We have a price wedge on crude oil that ultimately cost us our fist fast track winner with the minor trend line overhead.
Now we need to sell the highs of this wedge and buy the lows.
945am est
We test the highs of the range on crude oil 89range chart and we have overbought momentum so we sell the highs.
Now if price keeps rising we will buy a pullback and look to take profit at the BMT 83.88. Avoid entering the market around 83.88 and look to sell the highs of 84.45-84.56 as resistance.
If price falls im buying price channel lows (bullish trend) and im going to read the tape and if we blow right through support I will then sell a retracement.
As price falls im buying at major support levels and channel lows and then selling retracements with new lows.
1000am est
We now have a wedge pattern on the crude oil charts and we see the personality changing to a much slower market ahead of 1030am news.
We know the middle of the wedge is dangerous, so be patient to sell the highs of 83.00 and/or buy the lows of 81.55, 81.03
1045am est
We have finally got our winners coming in on crude oil this morning after we saw buyers fail above the PHOD.
Now we plan our attack for the next moves we see coming..
If price rises I’m selling 83.31 first, and then buying a pullback above 83.50 and then looking to take profit at the 89r BMT 83.84
If price falls I will then sell below the PHOD 83.14.
I would like to see a pattern, however, i can get short when i see big sellers below the PHOD with momentum overbought.
