traders come back from Holiday to early morning CAD News and a Quiet start to the week ahead

First day back after a long weekend, day traders will be getting back to their desk’s and starting their week’s a little slower than usual with Monday as a holiday.

The first thing traders do this morning is get back into their routine’s and with no major news this morning we don’t have a lot to expect as far as news catalysts go, so anything can happen.

We don’t have any major US news this morning on the calendar and all we have is 815am Housing Starts out of CAD, which will affect crude oil futures.

Our day begins with 815am CAD news, we will watch the CRUDE OIL contract closely for opportunities after that news is released. Later in the morning we have our 930am US Open, followed by the 1030am Reversal, 1100am Transition into lunch, and of course the 1130am European close. We will wait through 1130am to see if volume persists, and if we don’t see any market personality we will stop for the morning and wait for better price action.

We have a sideways trend on the dollar index, which means we do NOT have a directional bias to work with. This can easily change, so use your 13range chart on the dollar to keep an eye out for higher highs or lower lows to signal the change in this short term trend.

update dollar index 900am

My plan of attack on the Euro is as follows…

If price rises I’m selling the highs of the bear price channel, the PHOD 1.3690 and the price wedge highs around 1.3667 and 1.3622.

If price moves above the PHOD I will first look for the fake-out breakout to sell the failure at the highs, and then if the buyers are strong enough to keep price moving higher I will then buy a pullback with the final target up at 1.3791 the next major resistance level overhead.

If price falls (dx makes new higher-highs) I’m selling new lower-lows with retracements, keeping an eye out for this bear price channel not to sell into those lows.

I will buy at support as price falls buying 1.3500 price wedge lows and PLOD 1.3447 as major support first. If we break new lower-lows below .47’s we then will look for the fake-out breakouts to the downside first, seeing if we cant get the sellers to fail and then buy above PLOD as the failure, or if the sellers are too strong we then sell new lower-lows with retracements below the PLOD 1.3447 down to the next final target of 1.3353. I will then buy the support at 1.3353 and repeat the same process with new lower-lows.

Crude Oil Futures….The price channel’s give us some easy entry locations for our trades this morning, as well as a bias to the direction of those trades.

If price rises I’m selling the highs of the bear price channel around 85.00, sell the resistance above the price channel highs at 85.25, avoid the open 85.29 and then sell the resistance at 85.55 overhead.

If price keeps going higher than 85.55 HOD we will look for the fake-out breakout first, and then if the buyers really have control I will then buy pullbacks up to the next level of resistance at PHOD 86.09. I will sell the PHOD 86.09 as resistance and then look for the fake-out breakout with new higher-highs. If buyers are too strong then I will buy a pullback with new higher-highs above PHOD