Traders looking for Consumer Confidence to spark new trading opportunities

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The James’ Report:  Professional Resources for Professional Traders

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– Dollar index is bearish this morning, which tells us to keep buying pullback on the markets we trade such as crude oil futures, Russell, Euro, and gold.  We know the dollar index is at the lows of the bear price channel which means it will continue to have difficulty moving lower with much consistency.  We will see 5 ticks new lower-lows, and then 15 ticks back up off those lows, and this is expected to show sloppy price action at new higher-highs on the markets we trade.  We will be looking to buy deep pullbacks (21r charts) as the dollar index keeps moving lower, and then if the dollar index reverses off these lows and goes higher above the PHOD 76.465 we have all our markets just begging us to sell these highs we are overbought.  All eyes will be on the dollar index this morning for direction.

– euro currency futures are dealing with slop and chop ahead of the EU Summit on Wednesday and it looks like a carbon copy of the dollar index only backwards.  DOLLAR INDEX is at the lows of the bear price channel, and the euro currency futures at the highs of the bull price channel.  I want to sell the price channel highs and sell the break below PHOD 1.3897.  I’m looking at potential for very sloppy price action on the euro currency futures today, so beware.  It would great if the dollar index would break above the 76.400 to get ALL of these markets moving lower off these highs.

– crude oil futures trading at the highs of the price channel and outside day above the PHOD so we are clearly bullish this morning.  We have two scenarios, if the dollar index keeps dropping we will have a sloppy day moving higher into overbought territory and the highs of this bull price channel (remember not to buy the highs of anything) and then if the dollar index rises off these lows its at, then we can sell these highs of the price channel, brining price down to the ‘C’ point and the PHOD which are acting as price magnets.  We want to get crude oil futures off these highs, so we are looking for short position to do that, but we need to wait for the dollar index to make it easier on us first, get it OFF those lows!

– Mini-Russell Futures trading at the highs of the bull price channel inside the range from Monday and headed lower.  Again, the dollar index is the variable.  If the dollar index moves higher we look great to sell short as price keeps falling. If the dollar index keeps moving lower we will have trouble buying price because we are at the highs.  I want to sell the highs of the range/PHOD/Price channel so it will be better trading to the short side, and we need to wait for the dollar index to confirm moving higher.

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Around the Globe this morning:

– Markets appear to benefit on the whole from optimism that European leaders will reach a solution on the euro zone debt crisis

– House of Commons rejected a call for EU referendum by 483 votes to 111 votes

– Italy must deliver new austerity measures tomorrow as a precondition of further purchases of BTPs by the ECB. Italian cabinet failed to agree on measures before summit

– (IN) India Central Bank  (RBI)  raised both the Repo and Reverse Repo Rates by 25bps to 8.50% and 7.50% respectively (as expected)’ Maintain the Cash Reserve Ratio unchanged at 6.00%

– The India Central Bank (RBI) issued a statement following its rate decision. The RBI stated that it was necessary to persist with anti-inflationary stance even as impact of past monetary actions unfoldsIt cut its FY12 GDP target to 7.6% from 8.0% prior view and maintained its Wholesale Price Index (WPI) target at 7.0% for March 2012 (end of fiscal year). 

– France Fin Min Baroin commented that the credit rating of France was dependent on readiness to act. He noted that investors were testing Italy and reiterated view that Italy needs to reduce its debt. He stressed that France was determined to avoid Greek credit event.

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Today’s Economic News:

Day traders are finally back to normal news this morning beginning with 900am Case-Schiller Home Prices, followed by the 930am US Open.  We then move to 1000am for consumer confidence where traders will be looking for sentiment in the markets ahead of the EU Summit On Wednesday along with Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and Home Price Index at 1000am EST today.

October we saw some bullish sentiment reports, and another optimistic report may get these markets really moving today, so we will be looking forward to news this morning.

We have the EU Summit tomorrow, Wednesday, so look for volume to slow down after 1100am EST we will be watching for the change in market personality.

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    Rahul - October 26, 2011 Reply

    wind up this moron called RBI, else increase repo rate at one go to say 1000 basis points. why do it piecemeals. will this govt allow us to die in peace for we can notlive any longer.

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