December 1, 2011

Trade the News Market Internals update at 12:00ET

Dow -44 S+P -5 NASDAQ -4
***Economic data***
– (BR) Brazil Nov PMI Manufacturing: 48.7 v 46.5 prior
– (BR) Brazil Nov Trade Balance: $583M v $2.0Be- (US) Dec RBC Consumer Outlook Index: 40.3 v 39.6 prior
– (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 402K v 390Ke; Continuing Claims: 3.740M v 3.650Me
– (US) Oct Construction Spending M/M: 0.8% v 0.3%e- (MX) Mexico Oct Remittances: $1.9B v $2.0Be- -(US) Nov ISM Manufacturing: 52.7 v 51.8e; ISM Prices Paid: 45.0 v 45.0e
– (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories -1 BCF v +5 BCF to +15 BCF expected
– US equities gained a bit in early trading but remain more or less flat following yesterday’s monster rally that followed in the wake of the coordinated central bank action. Note that in Wednesday’s rally, the DJIA jumped 490.05 points, its largest gain since March 23, 2009. The central bank move was clearly a precautionary strategy to help boost liquidity in light of the European debt wildfire, however many analysts have been very skeptical about the sustainability of the rally, and in fact the shares of major US banks are already losing ground, with most leading names down 1.5-2.0% after yesterday’s huge gains. On the data front, October Construction Spending surprised many analysts, gaining nearly three times the expected amount. The ISM manufacturing data also topped expectations, with good strength seen in the new orders component. Crude oil, precious metals and base metals are largely flat today, also sustaining the gains from yesterday’s session. Treasury prices opened lower once again but have been paring back losses. Sovereign spreads in Europe continue to narrow aggressively after French and Italian bond auction were received well: the Italian 10-year yield is down 40 basis points while the Spanish has declined by more than 50.
– In equity news, Sprint and Clearwire reached a deal for funding and network access for the next several years, eliminating fears of a Clearwire bankruptcy for the moment. Sprint said it would pay Clearwire $926M for unlimited use of its current WiMax network through 2013, with payments adjusted for usage thereafter. In return Clearwire committed to keep the network up and running at least until 2015. CLWR had gained more than 10% during yesterday’s session on rumors of a deal, and is up more than 20% this morning. Earnings out of supermarket chain Kroger and Lululemon more or less met expectations. KR is up a few percent, while LULU is down 10% as investors worried about the firm’s low margins and low margin guidance. BKS is down 18% after reporting an unexpected quarterly loss, thanks to costs from a one-time special dividend.
– The November same-store sales reports were polarized between big winners and sizable losers. In apparel, names that have been reported robust gains did so again in November, with The Limited, Buckle, Ross Stores and TJX really outperforming expectations, while Gap and Cato continue to really drag. In the broadline category, Costco crushed expectations while Target really missed. Among department names, Macys and Saks were much better than expected, while JC Penny and Kohls did very badly. Bonton, which has strugged over recent months, beat analysts’ targets, however comps remained in the red. Most retailers are in the black in the early going, even TGT, although KSS is down 6% thanks to its poor showing.
– The euro continues to sustain the gains made after yesterday’s coordinated central bank action. EUR/USD was a bit soft overnight, testing 1.3430 after ECB Chief Draghi reiterated that ECB action remains temporary and restricted by existing EU treaties, and as European PMI readings all came in below 50. However the euro firmed up a bit heading into the US session.
***Looking Ahead***
– 11:00 (IC) Iceland Q3 Current Account
– 12:00 (IT) Italy Nov New Car Registrations
– 13:00 (IT) Italy Nov Budget Balance
– 17:00 (US) Nov Total Vehicle Sales

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