FOMC News Strategy | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 08/17/16

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“Develop an attitude of gratitude, and give thanks for everything that happens to you, knowing that every step forward is a step toward achieving something bigger and better than your current situation.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:

Today’s session started with some narrow ranges but the Inventory Report and FOMC Meeting Minutes got things moving in the second half of the session and will likely give us some great trading opportunities tomorrow; All four of our markets are bullish this evening which is rare, but with markets reacting to the news today we know that anything is possible and we will be ready.

Crude Oil is bullish and trying to complete the measured-move target after the inventory report sent prices higher today.  The bulls have control, so they will be looking to buy the next pullback to the moving-average, but one thing that concerns me is that we are trading at the completion of the wedge target which tells me to expect a trap on the next pullback and look for the seller-failure or 2nd try from the buyers to finish the move to the highs of the channel.  Sellers need to stay patient because the strength of this recent move higher will most likely give the buyers reason to buy every pullback until they get their target.  The only real safe place for sellers at this point will be a successful breakout-pullback below the battle zone at 46.26.

E-mini S&P is bullish and trying to finish rotation up to the highs of the channel after today’s FOMC Meeting Minutes ‘kicked the rate-hike can’ deeper into the end of the year.  Buyers have control and will be looking to buy pullbacks to the moving-average but the fact that the moving-average is UNDER the measured-move that will most likely pose a challenge.  The buyers will need to see continued strength pushing higher if they want to buy the pullback without buying into the measured-move or they will need to wait for a 2-legged-correction back to prior support levels and then buy it up again.  Sellers will have a small window of opportunity with a successful breakout-pullback below the low of the channel but they won’t likely get much more than a scalp because strong trend will likely have buyers waiting below every swing-low until we can get and STAY below the 71.75 battle zone tomorrow.

Gold is bullish and trying to re-test the highs which should develop into a bullish spike & channel or spike & wedge for tomorrow.  The bulls have control after the FOMC Meetings minutes sent prices shooting higher and will be looking to re-test the highs after a beautiful seller-failure below the moving-average.  Buyers will be looking for pullbacks to the moving-average, seller-failure below the moving-average, or a trap-low below the prior swing at 49.5.  The sellers will need to show some serious strength back below the moving-average and then hold a pullback if they want any chance at deterring the buyers and re-testing the lows tomorrow.

Euro is bullish and trying to re-test the highs in an almost identical situation as Gold.  The buyers have control and the strength of this move higher tells us the odds are high that buyers will send this back to re-test the highs and possibly a spike & channel or spike & wedge for tomorrow.  Buyers will be looking for a seller-failure below the moving-average inside the correction zone and then buying pullbacks on the way up to the highs again.  Sellers need to see a strong push lower to give the bears the confidence they need to sell the next test of the moving-average with a target down to the lows.