January 12, 2012
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Day Trading Strategies for Dollar Index , Euro, Crude, Russell and Gold futures
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The James’ Report: Day Trading Strategies for Professional
Traders
Traders
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***Notes/Observations
from around the world***
from around the world***
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China Dec CPI hits 15-month low
China Dec CPI hits 15-month low
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Spain sells almost double the intended amount in bonds
Spain sells almost double the intended amount in bonds
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No changes expected at BOE and ECB rate decision today- European shares rallied
after Spain sold twice the amount anticipated during its debt auction. Italy’s
debt auction was also a success prompting optimism that there is still appetite
for peripheral debt. The results coupled with Fed’s confirmation that US’s
economic expansion improved in the past month, prompted shares higher.
Investors are also expecting two major rate decisions from ECB and BoE which
are both expected to leave rates unchanged at, respectively, 1.0% and 0.5%.
No changes expected at BOE and ECB rate decision today- European shares rallied
after Spain sold twice the amount anticipated during its debt auction. Italy’s
debt auction was also a success prompting optimism that there is still appetite
for peripheral debt. The results coupled with Fed’s confirmation that US’s
economic expansion improved in the past month, prompted shares higher.
Investors are also expecting two major rate decisions from ECB and BoE which
are both expected to leave rates unchanged at, respectively, 1.0% and 0.5%.
Speakers:
–
China Central Bank (PBoC) Gov Zhou reiterated its plans to further liberalize
interest rates and to consider both domestic and external conditions in such
reforms. He noted that conditions for market oriented interest rates were
basically ready as interest rates should be set in a competitive banking market
China Central Bank (PBoC) Gov Zhou reiterated its plans to further liberalize
interest rates and to consider both domestic and external conditions in such
reforms. He noted that conditions for market oriented interest rates were
basically ready as interest rates should be set in a competitive banking market
–
Moody’s Downgraded Spain region of Valencia sovereign rating to ‘Ba3’; ALL
sub-sovereign ratings place or review for Downgrade
Moody’s Downgraded Spain region of Valencia sovereign rating to ‘Ba3’; ALL
sub-sovereign ratings place or review for Downgrade
–
Swiss SNB council member Buehrer reiterated the view that CHF currency cap was
indispensible and added that a permanent peg was not an issue
Swiss SNB council member Buehrer reiterated the view that CHF currency cap was
indispensible and added that a permanent peg was not an issue
–
Italy PM Monti commented that Italy must play an active part in EU stability
and confirmed that the EU summit was moved a day ahead to Jan 29th
Italy PM Monti commented that Italy must play an active part in EU stability
and confirmed that the EU summit was moved a day ahead to Jan 29th
–
BoJ Chief Economist Maeda commented that one must be vigilant of European risks
to both Japan and global economy as the European debt crisis was the biggest
risk to Japan. He noted that Japan would see flat growth in the near term
before resuming its moderate recovery. Asia was a much bigger influence on
Japanese economy than Europe. Exports and production were somewhat weakening
due to overseas slowdown although the domestic demand situation was holding up.
The affects of European bank deleveraging impact was limited for Asia and that
fears of a US double dip had subsided. He did caution the current view of the
US economic recovery might be too optimistic. Lastly he did not think BoJ
2012/13 forecast of 2.2% GDP is too high.
BoJ Chief Economist Maeda commented that one must be vigilant of European risks
to both Japan and global economy as the European debt crisis was the biggest
risk to Japan. He noted that Japan would see flat growth in the near term
before resuming its moderate recovery. Asia was a much bigger influence on
Japanese economy than Europe. Exports and production were somewhat weakening
due to overseas slowdown although the domestic demand situation was holding up.
The affects of European bank deleveraging impact was limited for Asia and that
fears of a US double dip had subsided. He did caution the current view of the
US economic recovery might be too optimistic. Lastly he did not think BoJ
2012/13 forecast of 2.2% GDP is too high.
–
Japan Fin Min Azumi commented that the huge Japanese debt levels might affect
its long-term interest rates and the country must manage its debt in order to
stabilize the JPY currency
Japan Fin Min Azumi commented that the huge Japanese debt levels might affect
its long-term interest rates and the country must manage its debt in order to
stabilize the JPY currency
–
US Dep Treasury official Nolan reiterated US policy stance that CNY currency
remained undervalued and should be allowed greater flexibility
US Dep Treasury official Nolan reiterated US policy stance that CNY currency
remained undervalued and should be allowed greater flexibility
–
China Govt Economist commented that January inflation data would likely to
rebound and that any large monetary policy loosening was unlikely
China Govt Economist commented that January inflation data would likely to
rebound and that any large monetary policy loosening was unlikely
–
Says 2012 GDP to decelerate in H1 and rise moderately in H2
Says 2012 GDP to decelerate in H1 and rise moderately in H2
–
Spain’s government might not decide to not privatize the national lottery
Spain’s government might not decide to not privatize the national lottery
Currencies:
–
FX price action was quite subdued during the early part of the European session
ahead of the Spanish bond and Italy’s bill auctions. Dealer sentiment noted
that the auctions were likely getting too much attention to justify the
‘manipulated outcome’ it would likely produce ahead of monetary policy
announcements from the BoE and ECB. The EUR/USD did register marginal gains
following the Spanish and Italian auction results but equity markets did
perform better in the aftermath and extended gains to over 1% for most major
bourses. EU bond yield spreads are
tighter across the board ahead of the ECB meeting. The 10-year Italy/German
Gov’t bond spread tightened by over 40bps in the session to test 475bps aided by Italy’s Bill auction results.
FX price action was quite subdued during the early part of the European session
ahead of the Spanish bond and Italy’s bill auctions. Dealer sentiment noted
that the auctions were likely getting too much attention to justify the
‘manipulated outcome’ it would likely produce ahead of monetary policy
announcements from the BoE and ECB. The EUR/USD did register marginal gains
following the Spanish and Italian auction results but equity markets did
perform better in the aftermath and extended gains to over 1% for most major
bourses. EU bond yield spreads are
tighter across the board ahead of the ECB meeting. The 10-year Italy/German
Gov’t bond spread tightened by over 40bps in the session to test 475bps aided by Italy’s Bill auction results.
Political/ In the
Papers:
Papers:
–
Germany’s Handelsblatt reported that Germany’s 2011 borrowings may be lower
than expected. In mid-December it was reported that 2011 net borrowing could be
less than €20 billion against the German government’s November estimate of €22
billion.
Germany’s Handelsblatt reported that Germany’s 2011 borrowings may be lower
than expected. In mid-December it was reported that 2011 net borrowing could be
less than €20 billion against the German government’s November estimate of €22
billion.
–
According to the Telegraph EU countries may be allowed to violate new fiscal
rules during tough economic times. The development appears to be a watering
down plans for a tough fiscal pact. The role of the European Court of Justice
(ECJ) has been weakened in the draft, as the court will have its powers
restricted to receiving complaints from other members and impose deadlines for
nations to get their budgets back in line, as opposed to having the power to
judge if countries are breaking the rules. The draft imposed a deadline of Jan
1, 2013 for the new fiscal rules to be adopted.
According to the Telegraph EU countries may be allowed to violate new fiscal
rules during tough economic times. The development appears to be a watering
down plans for a tough fiscal pact. The role of the European Court of Justice
(ECJ) has been weakened in the draft, as the court will have its powers
restricted to receiving complaints from other members and impose deadlines for
nations to get their budgets back in line, as opposed to having the power to
judge if countries are breaking the rules. The draft imposed a deadline of Jan
1, 2013 for the new fiscal rules to be adopted.
–
The British House of Lords scraped welfare reform plans, as the government
suffered three defeats in the House of over the Welfare Reform Bill. The
welfare bill will now return to the Commons in attempts to overturn the
defeats.
The British House of Lords scraped welfare reform plans, as the government
suffered three defeats in the House of over the Welfare Reform Bill. The
welfare bill will now return to the Commons in attempts to overturn the
defeats.
–
In the inspection visit of Ireland, the EU/IMF team is pressing the Irish
government for a €5 billion sale in state assets. The government composed list
of assets that could be sold, though the bailout team now wants the government
and NTMA to come up with a detailed timeframe. The bailout partners want asset
sales valued at €5 billion, while the government wants to raise no more than €2
billion unless the money can be ring-fenced for job creation programs.
According to sources the issue is likely to dominate discussions for several
days. The IMF/EU expects to announce mission results at a press conference next
Thursday 19th January.
In the inspection visit of Ireland, the EU/IMF team is pressing the Irish
government for a €5 billion sale in state assets. The government composed list
of assets that could be sold, though the bailout team now wants the government
and NTMA to come up with a detailed timeframe. The bailout partners want asset
sales valued at €5 billion, while the government wants to raise no more than €2
billion unless the money can be ring-fenced for job creation programs.
According to sources the issue is likely to dominate discussions for several
days. The IMF/EU expects to announce mission results at a press conference next
Thursday 19th January.
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Today’s Economic News:
Our
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we
begin our day with the most important news of the week, Jobless Claims. We’ve been seeing great progress lowering
jobless claims (we don’t know if we’re adding jobs yet though) and we expect
another sub-400k reading this morning at 830am EST. We will also see a very important retail
sales at the same time this morning.
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we
begin our day with the most important news of the week, Jobless Claims. We’ve been seeing great progress lowering
jobless claims (we don’t know if we’re adding jobs yet though) and we expect
another sub-400k reading this morning at 830am EST. We will also see a very important retail
sales at the same time this morning.
Once
we make it through the 930am EST US Open we then have 1000am Business
Inventories which will be correlated to crude oil futures and then at 1030am a
minor report from Natural Gas which we will not pay too much attention to. Looking towards the end or the morning we
will expect the markets to slow down into 1100am before picking up speed when
the european markets close up at 1130am EST today. If you’re trading the after soon today in the
US beware of the 200pm Treasury Budget as your starting point to the afternoon
trading opportunities.
we make it through the 930am EST US Open we then have 1000am Business
Inventories which will be correlated to crude oil futures and then at 1030am a
minor report from Natural Gas which we will not pay too much attention to. Looking towards the end or the morning we
will expect the markets to slow down into 1100am before picking up speed when
the european markets close up at 1130am EST today. If you’re trading the after soon today in the
US beware of the 200pm Treasury Budget as your starting point to the afternoon
trading opportunities.
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