January 17, 2012
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Day Trading Strategies for Dollar Index , Euro, Crude, Russell and Gold futures
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The James’ Report: Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders
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***Notes/Observations
from around the world***
from around the world***
–
S&P downgrades EFSF one notch to AA+ following the prior French, Austrian
cuts
S&P downgrades EFSF one notch to AA+ following the prior French, Austrian
cuts
–
China Q4 GDP at 2 year lows but above analysts’ estimates
China Q4 GDP at 2 year lows but above analysts’ estimates
–
Germany Jan ZEW Survey improves to its best reading since July 2011
Germany Jan ZEW Survey improves to its best reading since July 2011
–
European shares recovered their losses taking cue from Asian trading even after
China’s data showed economic slowing. As expected, S&P downgraded EFSF
rating to AA+, an action which did not move markets. However, German ZEW data
was the highest reading since July 2011 marking a significant improvement in
sentiment.
European shares recovered their losses taking cue from Asian trading even after
China’s data showed economic slowing. As expected, S&P downgraded EFSF
rating to AA+, an action which did not move markets. However, German ZEW data
was the highest reading since July 2011 marking a significant improvement in
sentiment.
Speakers:
–
ZEW Economists commented that the improvement in the ZEW sentiment was helped
by improved US data and lower EMU yields improvement. The ZEW saw the Germany
economy stabilizing over the next six months. Contrary to repeatedly expressed
fears of recession, the assessment of experts gives reason for cautious
optimism.
ZEW Economists commented that the improvement in the ZEW sentiment was helped
by improved US data and lower EMU yields improvement. The ZEW saw the Germany
economy stabilizing over the next six months. Contrary to repeatedly expressed
fears of recession, the assessment of experts gives reason for cautious
optimism.
–
ZEW’s Franz commented that Germany would only experience a “dent” in
its economic activity and noted that the ECB generous liquidity operations
supported rise in sentiment. He did caution that the EU debt crisis remains
risk to economic growth.
ZEW’s Franz commented that Germany would only experience a “dent” in
its economic activity and noted that the ECB generous liquidity operations
supported rise in sentiment. He did caution that the EU debt crisis remains
risk to economic growth.
–
ECB’s Nowotny commented that the central bank was looking for alternatives for
the Govt Bond Buying program (SMP) and that discussions included the entire
monetary policy spectrum and instruments. He noted that a triple A rating for
ESM facility was possibly but not
necessary. On monetary policy Nowotny stated that the ECB never pre-commits on
interest rate decisions but did note that the ECB had taken clear steps not
only in terms of interest rate decreases, but also in terms of the very massive
broadening of liquidity provision and of the opinion that it was now about
capturing the full effect of these measures. He believed the S&P downgrade
of Austria was political to an extent but not without cause.
ECB’s Nowotny commented that the central bank was looking for alternatives for
the Govt Bond Buying program (SMP) and that discussions included the entire
monetary policy spectrum and instruments. He noted that a triple A rating for
ESM facility was possibly but not
necessary. On monetary policy Nowotny stated that the ECB never pre-commits on
interest rate decisions but did note that the ECB had taken clear steps not
only in terms of interest rate decreases, but also in terms of the very massive
broadening of liquidity provision and of the opinion that it was now about
capturing the full effect of these measures. He believed the S&P downgrade
of Austria was political to an extent but not without cause.
–
ECB’s Nowotny commented at a Euromoney conference that a negative feedback loop
with sovereign debt crisis has occurred and needed higher growth in order to
stabilize budgets. The banks 9% core tier 1 capital plan by mid-2012 was
unfortunate and increased problems.
Supervisors needed to assess bank capital plan to avoid restrictive impact on
lending. Emerging Europe would grow faster than EU average but added that
convergence woud be at a slower rate
ECB’s Nowotny commented at a Euromoney conference that a negative feedback loop
with sovereign debt crisis has occurred and needed higher growth in order to
stabilize budgets. The banks 9% core tier 1 capital plan by mid-2012 was
unfortunate and increased problems.
Supervisors needed to assess bank capital plan to avoid restrictive impact on
lending. Emerging Europe would grow faster than EU average but added that
convergence woud be at a slower rate
–
Fitch Sovereign Director Parker commented that Greece was insolvent and would
default ‘quite soon’, which should not be a surprice. He added that Greece
would not likely to honor its March 20th bond payment nd that the EU debt
crisis would be both long and drawn out process
Fitch Sovereign Director Parker commented that Greece was insolvent and would
default ‘quite soon’, which should not be a surprice. He added that Greece
would not likely to honor its March 20th bond payment nd that the EU debt
crisis would be both long and drawn out process
–
EU’s Buti reiterated view that Greek debt swap negotiations (PSI) are currently
paused
EU’s Buti reiterated view that Greek debt swap negotiations (PSI) are currently
paused
–
German Govt Advisor Franz stated that the Euro would survive with 17 members
still in it in a year’s time
German Govt Advisor Franz stated that the Euro would survive with 17 members
still in it in a year’s time
–
EFSF chief Regling commented that the European nations did have a plan to lower
deficits
EFSF chief Regling commented that the European nations did have a plan to lower
deficits
but
conceded that Greece was a difficult case. He noted that there was not much
impact from S&P downgrade, so long as Moody’s and Fitch did not follow.
Investors have lost confidence in European policy making and are afraid that
the Euro Zone might break up but such fears are unfounded. EFSF never had
issues placing bonds as it has had good demand from Asia and Middle East
investors and had significant preliminary commitments from global investors
conceded that Greece was a difficult case. He noted that there was not much
impact from S&P downgrade, so long as Moody’s and Fitch did not follow.
Investors have lost confidence in European policy making and are afraid that
the Euro Zone might break up but such fears are unfounded. EFSF never had
issues placing bonds as it has had good demand from Asia and Middle East
investors and had significant preliminary commitments from global investors
–
metals consultancy GFMS commented that 2011 global gold demand was at 4,436
tons, +2% y/y while global gold investment was at 1,563 tons, -7.0% y/y. Gold
to average $1,640/oz in H1 2012 and could test support around $1,550/oz and
could break $2,000/oz by late 2012 or early 2013. It noted that gold market was
near closing its decade long bull rally but added that economic and political
backdrop still favored gold and could ‘fire up’ on re-emergence of US concerns.
China might overtake India as top gold consumer in H1 2012
metals consultancy GFMS commented that 2011 global gold demand was at 4,436
tons, +2% y/y while global gold investment was at 1,563 tons, -7.0% y/y. Gold
to average $1,640/oz in H1 2012 and could test support around $1,550/oz and
could break $2,000/oz by late 2012 or early 2013. It noted that gold market was
near closing its decade long bull rally but added that economic and political
backdrop still favored gold and could ‘fire up’ on re-emergence of US concerns.
China might overtake India as top gold consumer in H1 2012
Currencies:
–
The Euro continued to rebound from last Friday’s lows of 1.2622 and continued
to shake off the multi-country sovereign downgrade from S&P last Friday and
subsequent cut in the EFSF facility rating by a notch. Risk appetite also improved
as traders assessed China’s Q4 GDP data and better German ZEW survey. EUR/USD
held a key support of 1.2660 on Monday and tested the 1.28 area by the NY
morning in today’s session. The Euro was also supported by comments from ECB
Nowotny who indicated that the ECB was not planning to cut its main refi rate
further any time soon as it would study the recent cuts and massive central
bank liquidity operations. The Euro did stall at the 1.28 level after Fitch
sovereign director Parker bluntly stated that
The Euro continued to rebound from last Friday’s lows of 1.2622 and continued
to shake off the multi-country sovereign downgrade from S&P last Friday and
subsequent cut in the EFSF facility rating by a notch. Risk appetite also improved
as traders assessed China’s Q4 GDP data and better German ZEW survey. EUR/USD
held a key support of 1.2660 on Monday and tested the 1.28 area by the NY
morning in today’s session. The Euro was also supported by comments from ECB
Nowotny who indicated that the ECB was not planning to cut its main refi rate
further any time soon as it would study the recent cuts and massive central
bank liquidity operations. The Euro did stall at the 1.28 level after Fitch
sovereign director Parker bluntly stated that
Political/ In the
Papers:
Papers:
–
The Irish government provided an update and identified suitable assets to sell
per troika bailout agreements. Stake sales include 25% stake in Aer Lingus,
Dublin Port, and parts in Bord Gis and Coillte. The finance minister and the
public expenditure minister is to meet senior officials Thursday morning, prior
to the release of two separate press conferences. The government added that it
has met all the targets in line with the program.
The Irish government provided an update and identified suitable assets to sell
per troika bailout agreements. Stake sales include 25% stake in Aer Lingus,
Dublin Port, and parts in Bord Gis and Coillte. The finance minister and the
public expenditure minister is to meet senior officials Thursday morning, prior
to the release of two separate press conferences. The government added that it
has met all the targets in line with the program.
–
Various banks in Europe are looking to find ways to raise capital without the
use of share sales. Certain banks are seeking to revise their accounting
methods related to prior acquisitions in order to boost capital levels. Banks
are also seeking to restructure their capital structures in order to raise
certain types of capital. European banks are expected to present their capital
raising plans to the EBA by the end of this week.
Various banks in Europe are looking to find ways to raise capital without the
use of share sales. Certain banks are seeking to revise their accounting
methods related to prior acquisitions in order to boost capital levels. Banks
are also seeking to restructure their capital structures in order to raise
certain types of capital. European banks are expected to present their capital
raising plans to the EBA by the end of this week.
–
Some fund managers remain concerned about the possibility of a
“messy” default for Greece. The FT reported that if there were a
disorderly default for Greece, then it could lead to write downs of more than
€50 billion. Also, if there is an orderly default for Greece, it could lead to
further contagion.
Some fund managers remain concerned about the possibility of a
“messy” default for Greece. The FT reported that if there were a
disorderly default for Greece, then it could lead to write downs of more than
€50 billion. Also, if there is an orderly default for Greece, it could lead to
further contagion.
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Today’s Economic News:
Our
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we
come back from a long weekend MLK-Holiday to early morning Empire State
Manufacturing Data which is expected to be much higher this week than last.
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we
come back from a long weekend MLK-Holiday to early morning Empire State
Manufacturing Data which is expected to be much higher this week than last.
Look
at the swing in manufacturing data on the charts posted below. We can clearly see the New York State
manufacturing sector taking a big plunge right when the euro currency crisis
began in late spring 2011 and now you can also see it showing a remarkable
rebound. They werent kidding when they
said new-yorkers were tough…..ay-yo! How do we use this data? Remember that crude oil futures will be
responding to this, as well as the overall sentiment in the markets will get
more bullish with more demand for all resources, including the dollar index.
at the swing in manufacturing data on the charts posted below. We can clearly see the New York State
manufacturing sector taking a big plunge right when the euro currency crisis
began in late spring 2011 and now you can also see it showing a remarkable
rebound. They werent kidding when they
said new-yorkers were tough…..ay-yo! How do we use this data? Remember that crude oil futures will be
responding to this, as well as the overall sentiment in the markets will get
more bullish with more demand for all resources, including the dollar index.
We are also going to be seeing a rate statement this morning out of canada, and since they export great hockey players, amazing day traders (you know who you are!) and CRUDE OIL we know to watch the major CAD news when there isnt any major US news around the same time, looking for clues in direction.
The
only variable we have this morning will be volume. Will we get a lot of volume after a long
weekend? Will the recent strong germany
outlook bring more volume or will today be sluggish, we will wait and see, but
we know to watch the clock for 1100am EST to make sure we are aware of the
morning session slowing down, so keep that in mind.
only variable we have this morning will be volume. Will we get a lot of volume after a long
weekend? Will the recent strong germany
outlook bring more volume or will today be sluggish, we will wait and see, but
we know to watch the clock for 1100am EST to make sure we are aware of the
morning session slowing down, so keep that in mind.
As
always, we’re reading tape, watching speed, and overall market personality for
clues after 1130am when the Euro markets close to end up our morning.
always, we’re reading tape, watching speed, and overall market personality for
clues after 1130am when the Euro markets close to end up our morning.
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I highly recommend it to all of my clients looking for this type of data. We have partnered with TTN to provide a FREE
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I highly recommend it to all of my clients looking for this type of data. We have partnered with TTN to provide a FREE
Trial of this service by following this link: https://www.tradethenews.com/?affiliate=sot
I’m
always improving this prep, I appreciate your feedback, please post it here!
