January 23, 2012

Monday morning day trading strategy

We begin our week with the dollar index, and our main strategy of using the dollar index is to locate the major turning points and the short term trend.  Major turning points tell us where to look for reversals and the short term trend helps us find wave pattern to trade with the trend.

As the dollar index rises off these support levels we look for selling opportunities, and if the dollar index falls through support at these lows we then know to keep buying pullbacks.

Our day trading strategy for crude oil futures uses the 89-range chart to begin the process of finding the price structure, and the highest percentage areas for our trading this morning.  We can see the price wedge will be the most important aspect, followed by the PLOD just above us if the sellers are going to fail moving lower, and the double-top support levels below us.

If price keeps moving lower we are looking to sell retracements with new lower lows and a rising dollar, and at the same time looking for short term price reversals off support levels from the double top, from the wedge lows, and from the trigger zone below us.

If price moves higher we want to buy using the dollar index moving lower, the lows of the wedge, and the INSIDE to OUTSIDE day transition which will occur when we get back above the PLOD.  Looking to buy above 99.75 as one of the highest percentage trading opportunities today.

It should also be noted that Friday was VERY sloppy in this same area so we need to be on our best trading behaivor this morning waiting for the market to confirm with the dollar index and get the best price patterns to trade.

We open our much faster 34-range chart to execute our day trading strategy on crude oil.  We see the price wedge, the INSIDE DAY, and we see the Dollar Index appears to try to move lower.  All signs point to rising prices.  We can see the major trigger zone above us which was drawn from the highs of 102.30 down to the lows of 97.40 and we can assume that will be a price magnet.

Our goal is to buy pullbacks with new higher highs as the dollar index keeps falling, looking for the higher % trades above 99.50 and then above the 99.85 trigger zone lows.

Our crude oil trading strategy is further refined using the 21-range chart and now we can see exactly the price levels we need to look for entries.  We can see the trigger zone above us as a nice easy profit target after buying a pullback with higher highs.  We can see the trigger zone below us makes for another easy target if the dollar keeps rising and we move lower lows in crude oil prices so we can sell a retracement.

We are trading in the same sloppy area we last found price on friday afternoon so let this a good location to be extra careful trading crude oil with this strategy this morning.

Our day trading strategy on the euro currency futures uses the dollar index as a highly-correlated market so keep an eye on dollar personality, turning points, and the short term trend before taking euro day trades this morning.  The highest percentage trades on the euro will be the result of using the dollar index at the correct locations.

We are above the range from friday this morning, an outside day telling us to buy pullbacks with new higher highs and the dollar index moving lower.  We see the trigger zone magnet above us to that is our target 1.3085 with higher prices.

If price moves lower below the PHOD we want to sell it off down to the 2925 support and then hopefully sell again to the PLOD.  If the buyers fail above the PHOD we expect the sellers to grab hold and try to re-test the PLOD.

The Euro day trading strategy is further-defined with our 34 range chart.  Showing us the channel highs we want to sell these highs, the previous day’s trading range below us as the magnet, and lets not dollar is at the lows of its price channel as well.  If the dollar rises to new higher highs off the channel lows we can sell thesse channel highs on the euro.  Look for minor support at the PHOD so take profit at 1.2989 and then look to re-enter or add to your position short below the PHOD with the next target of the 34r trigger line and then the lows of the trigger zone (green line) which is just above the lows of the bull channel.

If price keeps moving lower we then need to buy the channel lows and the support levels (PLOD) around 1.2880.

The final timeframe on the euro currency futures tells us the higher percentage trades will be to sell these highs of the channel looking for wave failures and 2-step patterns, and then if we cant sell the highs wait patiently and buy the trigger zone support and/or the lows of the bull price channel.

We now move to the e-mini russell futures which we can see a strong bull channel and an outside day above the highs from friday.  We want to buy pullbacks at major support and use the PHOD as a line in the sand.  If we are above PHOD we know the buyers are in charge so buying pullbacks.  If we go below the PHOD we know the buyers have failed and we look to sell the failure of the highs.

If price drops considerably we look to buy the lows of the bull price channel.

We are looking for a wave entry long this morning on the 21-range chart of the russell using the bull price channel and the dollar short term downtrend as our biggest clues.

Notice the perfect location on the 21r wave long uses the trigger zone tool and momentum will confirm the entry on this inatra-day trading strategy.

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