February 2, 2012
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Day Trading Strategies for Dollar Index , Euro, Crude, Russell and Gold futures
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The James’ Report: Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders
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***Notes/Observations
from around the world***
from around the world***
–
Brazil posted its first trade deficit in
2 years in January
Brazil posted its first trade deficit in
2 years in January
–
Day 6 of the imminent Greek PSI deal
Day 6 of the imminent Greek PSI deal
– Japanese officials continue verbal FX
intervention
intervention
–
Xstrata confirmed talks with Glencore; Rec’d approach regarding a merger of
equals
Xstrata confirmed talks with Glencore; Rec’d approach regarding a merger of
equals
–
Spain Jan unemployment surges by 177K
Spain Jan unemployment surges by 177K
–
Spanish borrowing costs decline at 3-tranch bond auction
Spanish borrowing costs decline at 3-tranch bond auction
–
China stresses that Europe must help itself first
China stresses that Europe must help itself first
–
European shares erased gains during the session after drop in oil -related
names offset the rally following merger talks between Xstrata and Glencore.
European shares erased gains during the session after drop in oil -related
names offset the rally following merger talks between Xstrata and Glencore.
Speakers:
–
China Premier Wen commented that China was considering involvement in EFSF and
ESM facilities and reiterated its view that it was important to resolve the
European debt crisis. Europe must rely on itself and reduce its debt load and
introduce structural reforms
China Premier Wen commented that China was considering involvement in EFSF and
ESM facilities and reiterated its view that it was important to resolve the
European debt crisis. Europe must rely on itself and reduce its debt load and
introduce structural reforms
–
German Chancellor Merkel commented from Beijing that China believed that Europe
must do their ‘homework’ first regarding the crisis, then prepared to work for
a stable euro
German Chancellor Merkel commented from Beijing that China believed that Europe
must do their ‘homework’ first regarding the crisis, then prepared to work for
a stable euro
–
Greece govt official commented that the bulk of discussions with EU/IMF/ECB
Troika were basically completed but a few sticking points remain
Greece govt official commented that the bulk of discussions with EU/IMF/ECB
Troika were basically completed but a few sticking points remain
–
Germany BDB Banking Assoc President Schmitz stated that it must separate European
monetary and fiscal policies to avoid a renewed crisis of confidence in the
euro zone
Germany BDB Banking Assoc President Schmitz stated that it must separate European
monetary and fiscal policies to avoid a renewed crisis of confidence in the
euro zone
–
OECD chief Gurria commented that the ECB should purchase more bonds and
contribute to cutting the Greek debt stock and cautioned that long term
remedies would be doomed if the short-term issues are not addressed. He did
note that Ireland’s EU/IMF program was making good progress
OECD chief Gurria commented that the ECB should purchase more bonds and
contribute to cutting the Greek debt stock and cautioned that long term
remedies would be doomed if the short-term issues are not addressed. He did
note that Ireland’s EU/IMF program was making good progress
–
BoJ official Yamaguchi commented that the JPY currency has been appreciating
recently although needed more time to assess market trend
BoJ official Yamaguchi commented that the JPY currency has been appreciating
recently although needed more time to assess market trend
–
India Central Bank (RBI) Gov Subbarao commented that it needed to be
unpredictable about forex interventions; Unreasonable for RBI to target
inflation. He did concede that the RBI was
biased toward containing inflation rather than managing growth.
India Central Bank (RBI) Gov Subbarao commented that it needed to be
unpredictable about forex interventions; Unreasonable for RBI to target
inflation. He did concede that the RBI was
biased toward containing inflation rather than managing growth.
–
BoE’s Posen commented in a radio interview that banks were not doing enough to
support the economy
BoE’s Posen commented in a radio interview that banks were not doing enough to
support the economy
–
Norway Fin Fin Johnsen commented that its economy was brighter compared to
others but traditional exports did face challenge. He cautioned that banks must
prepare for turmoil. Development in
housing market were a concern as rising debt made sector ‘extremely vulnerable’
when interest rates go higher
Norway Fin Fin Johnsen commented that its economy was brighter compared to
others but traditional exports did face challenge. He cautioned that banks must
prepare for turmoil. Development in
housing market were a concern as rising debt made sector ‘extremely vulnerable’
when interest rates go higher
–
Italy minister said to have informed unions the gov’t is to go ahead with labor
refomrs regardless of agreement
Italy minister said to have informed unions the gov’t is to go ahead with labor
refomrs regardless of agreement
–
Moodys analyst Byrne commented that there was not much risk to Asian sovereign
ratings in 2012
Moodys analyst Byrne commented that there was not much risk to Asian sovereign
ratings in 2012
– S&P report noted that a Euro zone
recession could end in late 2012 but the severity of recession was a ‘close
call’. The euro zone should gradually climb out of its mild recession in the
second half of this year and into 2013. The core countries would likely lead
the way back to growth, with other member countries delivering diverging
performances. The S&P baseline
forecast for 2012-2013 projected flat GDP growth for the euro zone as a whole
in 2012 and 1% growth in 2013. S&P currently assigned a 60% probability to
our baseline forecast, versus 40% for our alternative forecast of a true double
dip. This would have a particularly
adverse impact in countries like Spain, Portugal, and Italy.
recession could end in late 2012 but the severity of recession was a ‘close
call’. The euro zone should gradually climb out of its mild recession in the
second half of this year and into 2013. The core countries would likely lead
the way back to growth, with other member countries delivering diverging
performances. The S&P baseline
forecast for 2012-2013 projected flat GDP growth for the euro zone as a whole
in 2012 and 1% growth in 2013. S&P currently assigned a 60% probability to
our baseline forecast, versus 40% for our alternative forecast of a true double
dip. This would have a particularly
adverse impact in countries like Spain, Portugal, and Italy.
Currencies:
–
The FX markets maintained its recent ranges as the risk appetite tried to
continue maintaining its recent momentum.
The FX markets maintained its recent ranges as the risk appetite tried to
continue maintaining its recent momentum.
–
The EUR/USD still had difficulty to break above the 1.32 handle and tested
lower following the Spanish unemployment data. The pair probed below the 1.3130
area but did steady a bit after the Spanish and French bond auction results.
Dealers did note that 2-way flows were prevalent with a plethora of
option-related orders. Comments by China Premier Wen that it was considering
involvement in EFSF and ESM facilities while German Chancellor Merkel visited
the country on a three-day State visit. Wen did clarify that Europe must rely
on itself and reduce its debt load and introduce structural reforms.
The EUR/USD still had difficulty to break above the 1.32 handle and tested
lower following the Spanish unemployment data. The pair probed below the 1.3130
area but did steady a bit after the Spanish and French bond auction results.
Dealers did note that 2-way flows were prevalent with a plethora of
option-related orders. Comments by China Premier Wen that it was considering
involvement in EFSF and ESM facilities while German Chancellor Merkel visited
the country on a three-day State visit. Wen did clarify that Europe must rely
on itself and reduce its debt load and introduce structural reforms.
–
The USD/JPY continued to hold above the 76.00 level with continued rhetoric
from Japanese officials.
The USD/JPY continued to hold above the 76.00 level with continued rhetoric
from Japanese officials.
Political/
In the Papers:
In the Papers:
–
In an interview with the BBC, Bank of England’s Posen said British banks are
not doing enough to support the economy. He suggested that the banking sector
needs more competition. In terms of policy, he supported the position that the
UK would have been far worse without Quantitative Easing (QE).
In an interview with the BBC, Bank of England’s Posen said British banks are
not doing enough to support the economy. He suggested that the banking sector
needs more competition. In terms of policy, he supported the position that the
UK would have been far worse without Quantitative Easing (QE).
–
The Telegraph’s Evans-Pritchard made note on the differences between the IMF
and EU with regards to Greece. There are risks that policy makers in Greece
could resist the new demands being made by the Troika officials. Both Germany
and the Netherlands are opposed to giving Greece any more money, amid recent
reports that Greece’s second rescue package might have to be raised by €15B.
The Telegraph’s Evans-Pritchard made note on the differences between the IMF
and EU with regards to Greece. There are risks that policy makers in Greece
could resist the new demands being made by the Troika officials. Both Germany
and the Netherlands are opposed to giving Greece any more money, amid recent
reports that Greece’s second rescue package might have to be raised by €15B.
On
the topic of the Bundesbank’s liability related to the EU debt crisis, he added
that the central bank has about €250B in liabilities related to the euro zone
system. The Bundesbank has already provided €496B to countries including
Greece, Ireland, Italy and Spain. A large portion of Bundesbank’s liabilities
are related to the ECB’s ‘TARGET2’ automatic payments network, which deals with
transactions between national central banks. According to Professor Frank
Westermann of Osnabruck University, the liabilities of the Bundesbank are
approaching the ‘danger point’. A break-up of the EU would present large risks
to the German central bank.
the topic of the Bundesbank’s liability related to the EU debt crisis, he added
that the central bank has about €250B in liabilities related to the euro zone
system. The Bundesbank has already provided €496B to countries including
Greece, Ireland, Italy and Spain. A large portion of Bundesbank’s liabilities
are related to the ECB’s ‘TARGET2’ automatic payments network, which deals with
transactions between national central banks. According to Professor Frank
Westermann of Osnabruck University, the liabilities of the Bundesbank are
approaching the ‘danger point’. A break-up of the EU would present large risks
to the German central bank.
–
In Ireland, NAMA reported only one in five loans were performing, with approximately
€18.8B in arrears. Its recent quarterly report indicates 83% of the
non-performing loans are four months in arrears; the agency must now either
restructure these loans or move against developers through the courts. Prior to
being transferred to NAMA, the value of performing loans were valued at €56.1B
against the current value of €18.8B. NAMA chairman Frank Daly and chief
executive Brendan McDonagh stated the number of non-performing loans was likely
to continue rising.
In Ireland, NAMA reported only one in five loans were performing, with approximately
€18.8B in arrears. Its recent quarterly report indicates 83% of the
non-performing loans are four months in arrears; the agency must now either
restructure these loans or move against developers through the courts. Prior to
being transferred to NAMA, the value of performing loans were valued at €56.1B
against the current value of €18.8B. NAMA chairman Frank Daly and chief
executive Brendan McDonagh stated the number of non-performing loans was likely
to continue rising.
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Today’s Economic News:
Our
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, on this morning we
start our day with some major news right at the start. 830am EST this morning we have Jobless
Claims, which are one of the most-watched news events of the week, and most
professional traders use this report to ‘translate’ what other reports are likely
to do to the markets they trade. This is
a significant indicator of economic health here in the US and we have been
flirting with the 400,000 level since end of 2011. If claims rise back up to 400k or more we are
going to see serious concerns about our recovery. If the jobless claims stay below 375k we are
going to see optimism in the markets across the board leading into Friday’s Non
Farm Payroll report.
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, on this morning we
start our day with some major news right at the start. 830am EST this morning we have Jobless
Claims, which are one of the most-watched news events of the week, and most
professional traders use this report to ‘translate’ what other reports are likely
to do to the markets they trade. This is
a significant indicator of economic health here in the US and we have been
flirting with the 400,000 level since end of 2011. If claims rise back up to 400k or more we are
going to see serious concerns about our recovery. If the jobless claims stay below 375k we are
going to see optimism in the markets across the board leading into Friday’s Non
Farm Payroll report.
How
do we trade Jobless Claims? Very
carefully, because we never know just how many ‘wrinkles’ there may be in the
interpretation of this news event. You
would need an advanced economics degree and have Warren Buffet on speed-dial to
be able to predict where the markets will go at 830am today, so we will trade
the reaction to this news, waiting for the big-wigs to place their orders and
then we can follow their direction.
do we trade Jobless Claims? Very
carefully, because we never know just how many ‘wrinkles’ there may be in the
interpretation of this news event. You
would need an advanced economics degree and have Warren Buffet on speed-dial to
be able to predict where the markets will go at 830am today, so we will trade
the reaction to this news, waiting for the big-wigs to place their orders and
then we can follow their direction.
 |
| Jobless Claims Data |
After
we move through the 930am EST US market open we will have to wait through Ben
Bernanke’s testimony in front of the House Budget Committee. ‘Big Ben’ as we call him is the head of our
Fed, so he controls short term interest rates which can easily affect our
currency and in-turn the world economy.
Look for him to read his prepared speech first, and then he will answer
questions without knowing them in advance, so traders will be looking for
candid answers that may give them trading opportunities or ways to read between
the lines to anticipate the next moves of the Fed.
we move through the 930am EST US market open we will have to wait through Ben
Bernanke’s testimony in front of the House Budget Committee. ‘Big Ben’ as we call him is the head of our
Fed, so he controls short term interest rates which can easily affect our
currency and in-turn the world economy.
Look for him to read his prepared speech first, and then he will answer
questions without knowing them in advance, so traders will be looking for
candid answers that may give them trading opportunities or ways to read between
the lines to anticipate the next moves of the Fed.
Professional
traders very rarely try to predict when the fed will act, making it very hard
to trade this type of news. We will be
watching the markets closely around 10am EST this morning looking for clues for
market personality.
traders very rarely try to predict when the fed will act, making it very hard
to trade this type of news. We will be
watching the markets closely around 10am EST this morning looking for clues for
market personality.
And
to finish our morning we have a very minor report from Natural Gas Futures,
which shouldn’t have much impact on the markets we trade at all.
to finish our morning we have a very minor report from Natural Gas Futures,
which shouldn’t have much impact on the markets we trade at all.
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| news for day traders |
We
will be moving to members-only this morning after 1130am EST so keep that in
mind. Members, bring your questions with you today to training, and if you’re a
guest with us, don’t miss today’s opportunity to learn how to trade with us!
will be moving to members-only this morning after 1130am EST so keep that in
mind. Members, bring your questions with you today to training, and if you’re a
guest with us, don’t miss today’s opportunity to learn how to trade with us!
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friends, they want to learn this too!
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I highly recommend it to all of my clients looking for this type of data. We have partnered with TTN to provide a FREE
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I highly recommend it to all of my clients looking for this type of data. We have partnered with TTN to provide a FREE
Trial of this service by following this link: https://www.tradethenews.com/?affiliate=sot
