Day Trading Strategies for Dollar Index , Euro, Crude, Russell and Gold futures

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The James’ Report: Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders

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The wise trader understands the value in
a balanced life. Work must be balanced
with reflection, family, health and fitness if the trader expects to have
long-lasting success. We look for ways
every day to provide balance in our lives to become better traders.

***Notes/Observations from around the
world***

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Australia’s RBA unexpectedly left its Key Rate unchanged

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Japan’s MOF data confirms stealth intervention (1st since March 2004)

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IMF warns that China GDP could be cut in half if European crisis escalates

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China banks cuts exposure to Europe

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China could post a January deficit due to effects from the week long Lunar New
Year holiday (Current expectations is surplus of $9.1B)

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European shares declined during the session among stalling Greece talks and
mixed corporate earnings. The Greek
government is struggling to progress on planned austerity measures which has triggered concerns over a contagion
in the Eurozone. Fitch noted that Eurozone crisis is likely to be prolonged as
a consequence while Citigroup analysts forecast chances of Greece exit from the
EMU at 50% within 18 months vs prior forecast of 25-30%.

Speakers:

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EU’s Juncker commented that Greece could not be forced from the euro and added
that if there was an exit, then other states would have to invest
‘unimaginable’ sums

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EU’s Kroes: EU would not get into trouble if Greece was forced to exit EMU

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China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) commented that while
foreign exchange inflows have slowed there had not been large outflows seen.

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Spain Econ Min de Guidos commented in an address to parliament that the Spanish
economy was slowing down significantly but reforms should help growth in H2 of
the year

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Greece PM Papademos to meet with party leaders regarding decision on fiscal rules
today at 16:00 local time (15:00 GMT). To meet with PASOKs George Papandreou,
New Democracys Antonis Samaras and the leader of Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS),
Giorgos Karatzaferis. The Greece PM to send new loan terms to party leaders
ahead of meetings

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Greek debt swap might include State companies according to the local press

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China’s PBoC: Reiterated it would continue to adopt a “prudent”
monetary policy and guide loans to certain sectors such as agriculture. To move
forward with asset securitization and ensure available credit for first time
home buyers

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BoE member Salmon commented that he recommended not to weaken reforms to speed
implementation. Policy makers should not cave in to the temptation to speed up
financial sector reform by watering down tough new rules for banks and
financial markets. The BOE was opposed to broadening the definition of capital
proposed under international accords known as Basel III that were aimed at
making banks better able to absorb losses

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China might increase its domestic fuel prices as of Feb 8th with diesel and
gasoline prices seen rising by CNY300/ton

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Iran parliament said it was prepared to ban oil exports to some EU countries

Currencies:

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Overall price action remained locked with recent ranges as market participants
await concrete debt agreement out of Greece.
Overall the Euro downside of late has been limited despite Greek debt
concern but the 1.3220 January high is providing stiff resistance.

Political/
In the Papers:

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FT comments addressed the discussion between officials in Greece. Greece’s unity government is expected to meet
later today to discuss planned reforms. According to one official,
“much” of the bail-out package has been agreed upon, including cuts
equal to €3B in health care, defense and local government spending over the
next two years. An additional €1.2B in cuts still need to be approved by the
Troika before the Greek prime minister meets with political leaders.

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For 2012 European business sentiment continued to receive negative expectations
as some analysts anticipate corporate defaults to rise. The FT article included
comments from various analysts. BNP estimated that the corporate bond default
rate will increase from 2.6% to about 4% by the end of 2012. Similarly Morgan
Stanley expects the corporate bond default rate to rise to 5%, while Bank of
America expects the rate to hit 5.9%

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According to the Times, dozens of French businesses are considering relocating
to the UK if French presidential candidate Hollande defeats President Sarkozy.
Hollande had already stated the he is seeking to cut the deficit by increasing
taxes by €11.8B for the wealthy, and by €17.3B for businesses. He also added
that SMEs are to be protected, and that there will benefits corporate tax rates
cuts (wealth tax plan to include top income tax rate of 45% for incomes of
€150,000/yr min).

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British Labour party leader Ed Miliband cautioned that youth unemployment has
reached an “emergency point” and could cost as much as £28B by 2022.
The Commission on Youth Unemployment released a report on Monday and noted that
the youth unemployment is the biggest challenge facing Britain and a “time
bomb” for the public finances. Currently one in five young people are
unemployment, education or training; 250k unemployed for more than a year.

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Today’s Economic News:

Our
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we don’t
have much economic news to work with. We
begin the day with minor news out of Canada regarding building permits, and
then we head into the 930am EST US Market Open.

Once
we get through 930am EST we will have little time before 1000am EST Ben
Bernanke is back in front of the Budget Committee talking about economic
outlook of the US in 2012. We know that
the first part of this speech will be released ahead of time, so the markets
will have already priced in most of what he will be saying, however, the second
half of this speech with be live questions and answers which he will not
prepare for so anything can happen.

We
know that price action tends to get thin when major politicos get on the
microphone so we need to beware the time around 10am. Once we get through 1030am EST this morning
all bets are off, this market may be sleepy or it may be volatile and moving
around nicely, we will wait and see what the market’s personality looks like
after Ben Bernanke is done with his time in front of the camera.

As
always, today is members-only after 1130am EST so members come join us in
training today, and guests you can get instant access to our DAILY
members-trainings by joining as an advanced member.