February 9, 2012
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Day Trading Strategies for Dollar Index , Euro, Crude, Russell and Gold futures
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The James’ Report: Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders
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The markets are just like people; if you don’t allow time for the markets to
tell you what they are trying to communicate you will never understand
them. Too often we rush through our
daily routine, cutting things short, and never taking the time needed to fully-understand
something. Take the time today to listen
to what the markets are trying to tell you, and then make an educated decision.
tell you what they are trying to communicate you will never understand
them. Too often we rush through our
daily routine, cutting things short, and never taking the time needed to fully-understand
something. Take the time today to listen
to what the markets are trying to tell you, and then make an educated decision.
***Notes/Observations from around the
world***
world***
–
Still lacking a complete and final agreement out of Greece ahead of today’s
Eurogroup meeting
Still lacking a complete and final agreement out of Greece ahead of today’s
Eurogroup meeting
–
Ireland: Fin Min Noonan demands relief on Irish debt if ECB makes concessions
on Greek debt.
Ireland: Fin Min Noonan demands relief on Irish debt if ECB makes concessions
on Greek debt.
–
Greek Nov Unemployment at record high of 20.9% with over 1 million unemployed
Greek Nov Unemployment at record high of 20.9% with over 1 million unemployed
–
China inflation a bit higher than expected with RRR cut calls on hold at this
time
China inflation a bit higher than expected with RRR cut calls on hold at this
time
–
European shares traded in positive territory ahead of ECB’s and BoE’s rate
decision due later in the NY morning. Traders expect both banks to maintain an
accommodative policy. Few analysts expect ECB to cut its interest rate from the
1% level, but amid the Greek turmoil, the central bank is expected to hint at
future rate cuts. On the other hand, BoE
may increase its Asset Purchase Target.
European shares traded in positive territory ahead of ECB’s and BoE’s rate
decision due later in the NY morning. Traders expect both banks to maintain an
accommodative policy. Few analysts expect ECB to cut its interest rate from the
1% level, but amid the Greek turmoil, the central bank is expected to hint at
future rate cuts. On the other hand, BoE
may increase its Asset Purchase Target.
Speakers:
–
Spain Fin Min Guindos commented that the H1 period to be very difficult for
Spain compared to year-ago performance but there were no plans for additional
tax increases (after a surprise hike in late 2011). Economy might not start to
recover until late this year, when unemployment should also peak thus he saw
stabilization in H2. Govt remained committed to achieving ambitious
deficit-reduction targets this year. The planned Eurogroup meeting today would
exert pressure on Greece.
Spain Fin Min Guindos commented that the H1 period to be very difficult for
Spain compared to year-ago performance but there were no plans for additional
tax increases (after a surprise hike in late 2011). Economy might not start to
recover until late this year, when unemployment should also peak thus he saw
stabilization in H2. Govt remained committed to achieving ambitious
deficit-reduction targets this year. The planned Eurogroup meeting today would
exert pressure on Greece.
–
Greece PM Papademos said to be seeking revised 2014 budget targets. Last minute
demands said to be complicated the agreement with the EU/IMF/ECB Troika and it
was uncertain if Troika deal would be completed ahead of today Eurogroup
meeting (schedule for 17:00 GMT)
Greece PM Papademos said to be seeking revised 2014 budget targets. Last minute
demands said to be complicated the agreement with the EU/IMF/ECB Troika and it
was uncertain if Troika deal would be completed ahead of today Eurogroup
meeting (schedule for 17:00 GMT)
–
The LAOS party chief Karatzaferis indicated early Thursday that he was not
willing to agree to the new Greek bailout terms at this time due to not having
adequate time to study it. Although he did not agree, he did not want to cause
any problems and indicated he would keep on supporting it.
The LAOS party chief Karatzaferis indicated early Thursday that he was not
willing to agree to the new Greek bailout terms at this time due to not having
adequate time to study it. Although he did not agree, he did not want to cause
any problems and indicated he would keep on supporting it.
–
Greek labour unions, GSEE and ADEDY, to hold 2-day strike between Feb 10-11th
period
Greek labour unions, GSEE and ADEDY, to hold 2-day strike between Feb 10-11th
period
–
German govt official: Sees no decision on Greece at today’s Eurogroup meeting
in Brussel
German govt official: Sees no decision on Greece at today’s Eurogroup meeting
in Brussel
–
South Korea Fin Min Jae-wan commented that Europe should take decisive steps to
resolve its debt problems before the Group of 20 leading economies approve a
move to boost resources of the IMF
South Korea Fin Min Jae-wan commented that Europe should take decisive steps to
resolve its debt problems before the Group of 20 leading economies approve a
move to boost resources of the IMF
–
China Commerce Min Chen commented that the January exports probably declined
and added that any policy fine-tuning would be supportive of trade. He
reiterated the view of maintaining the overall stability of the CNY currency
exchange rate
China Commerce Min Chen commented that the January exports probably declined
and added that any policy fine-tuning would be supportive of trade. He
reiterated the view of maintaining the overall stability of the CNY currency
exchange rate
–
China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) commented that
inflation to steadily decline after holiday effects. Pork and vegetable prices
would decline after surge due to effects from the holiday and weather. China to
steadily increase food supply to help curb prices
China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) commented that
inflation to steadily decline after holiday effects. Pork and vegetable prices
would decline after surge due to effects from the holiday and weather. China to
steadily increase food supply to help curb prices
–
Analyst comments on China inflation data and see potential RRR cuts on hold at
this time
Analyst comments on China inflation data and see potential RRR cuts on hold at
this time
–
Austria WIFO: Austria H1 GDP may stagnate
Austria WIFO: Austria H1 GDP may stagnate
– German IFO commented that EMU Q1 economic
climate increased to 84.8 v 83.7 prior Q4. It noted that analysts forecasted
that EMU monetary policy easing over next 6 months. The economic climate
continued to be below the long-term average and it was too early to speak of
general economic recovery in EMU, as conditions were weaker in most states,
which the exception of Germany. IFO forecasted 2012 inflation averaging 2.3%
with inflation outlook lower in most
states.
climate increased to 84.8 v 83.7 prior Q4. It noted that analysts forecasted
that EMU monetary policy easing over next 6 months. The economic climate
continued to be below the long-term average and it was too early to speak of
general economic recovery in EMU, as conditions were weaker in most states,
which the exception of Germany. IFO forecasted 2012 inflation averaging 2.3%
with inflation outlook lower in most
states.
–
German DIHK Survey saw 2012 GDP growth of 1% with exports rising 3.5%. Overall,
companies in Germany remained optimistic about 2012 and saw positive German GDP
growth in Q1.
German DIHK Survey saw 2012 GDP growth of 1% with exports rising 3.5%. Overall,
companies in Germany remained optimistic about 2012 and saw positive German GDP
growth in Q1.
Currencies:
–
The USD remained softer against the European pairs in the session although off
its worst levels. The Eurogroup meeting is scheduled to proceed later today
after the European equity markets close but unlikely to resolve any issues on
Greece.
The USD remained softer against the European pairs in the session although off
its worst levels. The Eurogroup meeting is scheduled to proceed later today
after the European equity markets close but unlikely to resolve any issues on
Greece.
–
The EUR/USD probed above the 1.33 handle early on but cautious comments by a
German official on Greece tempered some of the recent risk-on appetite.
The EUR/USD probed above the 1.33 handle early on but cautious comments by a
German official on Greece tempered some of the recent risk-on appetite.
Political/
In the Papers:
In the Papers:
–
According to a PwC report (entitled ‘Precious Plastic’), the average UK
household held nearly £8,000 in debt last year, placing it as one of the
world’s most indebted countries. The report found that in 2011 the average
family paid off £355 in unsecured debt with £7.9K left outstanding. For 2012,
it sees an additional reduction of £400, although at current rate, it will take
almost two decades to pay off the entire amount. A PwC official said, “In
addition to this, our credit confidence survey has shown that there is a
growing reluctance to borrow in the future and a marked deterioration in
confidence about meeting repayments, particularly among 18 to 24-year-olds”.
The squeeze on household finances is set to continue, according to a separate
study, with businesses planning to award average pay rises of just 1.1% this
year.
According to a PwC report (entitled ‘Precious Plastic’), the average UK
household held nearly £8,000 in debt last year, placing it as one of the
world’s most indebted countries. The report found that in 2011 the average
family paid off £355 in unsecured debt with £7.9K left outstanding. For 2012,
it sees an additional reduction of £400, although at current rate, it will take
almost two decades to pay off the entire amount. A PwC official said, “In
addition to this, our credit confidence survey has shown that there is a
growing reluctance to borrow in the future and a marked deterioration in
confidence about meeting repayments, particularly among 18 to 24-year-olds”.
The squeeze on household finances is set to continue, according to a separate
study, with businesses planning to award average pay rises of just 1.1% this
year.
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Today’s Economic News:
Our
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we
have one of our biggest news events of the week, Jobless Claims at 830am EST.
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we
have one of our biggest news events of the week, Jobless Claims at 830am EST.
We
have seen lower jobless claims week after week the past few month and last
Friday’s Non Farm Payroll report certainly made it LOOK like things were
getting better as far as more jobs being created in addition to the lower
claims for jobless benefits.
have seen lower jobless claims week after week the past few month and last
Friday’s Non Farm Payroll report certainly made it LOOK like things were
getting better as far as more jobs being created in addition to the lower
claims for jobless benefits.
Remember
the magic number is 400,000 jobless claims, so if we stay below that all will
remain the same, but if we see reading at 830am EST above 400,000 watch out,
all hell will break lose.
the magic number is 400,000 jobless claims, so if we stay below that all will
remain the same, but if we see reading at 830am EST above 400,000 watch out,
all hell will break lose.
How
do we trade jobless claims? Very tough
to know exactly how the market will react to such a broad news event that everyone
will be watching, so we need to be patient and see what the market’s reaction
will be. Does the dollar index make new
lows/highs? What does the speed look
like while the market is rising or falling after 830am EST. These are some of the clues we will use after
830am EST today to make sure we are trading with the majority of the traders in
the market. After all, it doesn’t matter
if we understand what SHOULD happen, all that matters is what the market wants
to do at that time.
do we trade jobless claims? Very tough
to know exactly how the market will react to such a broad news event that everyone
will be watching, so we need to be patient and see what the market’s reaction
will be. Does the dollar index make new
lows/highs? What does the speed look
like while the market is rising or falling after 830am EST. These are some of the clues we will use after
830am EST today to make sure we are trading with the majority of the traders in
the market. After all, it doesn’t matter
if we understand what SHOULD happen, all that matters is what the market wants
to do at that time.
 |
| Jobless Claims News 12 months |
| Jobless Claims 6 months |
After
830am EST this morning we have the 930am EST Us Market open and then we have a
very minor set of news at 10am and 1030am EST today. 1000am EST is Wholesale Trade, which wont
have much impact on anything, and then you have Natural Gas Inventories at
1030am EST this morning which will only move Nat-Gas so I don’t pay much
attention to Natural Gas this morning either.
830am EST this morning we have the 930am EST Us Market open and then we have a
very minor set of news at 10am and 1030am EST today. 1000am EST is Wholesale Trade, which wont
have much impact on anything, and then you have Natural Gas Inventories at
1030am EST this morning which will only move Nat-Gas so I don’t pay much
attention to Natural Gas this morning either.
Tomorrow
is a Friday, and we have Consumer Confidence and Ben Bernanke speaking on
Friday so it won’t surprise me if these markets get sloppy after 1130am EST
today so keep that in mind.
is a Friday, and we have Consumer Confidence and Ben Bernanke speaking on
Friday so it won’t surprise me if these markets get sloppy after 1130am EST
today so keep that in mind.
It’s
important to note that today we have members-only training after 1130am EST so
Guests make sure you get your questions typed in early today and we will make
sure we get them all answered for you asap!
important to note that today we have members-only training after 1130am EST so
Guests make sure you get your questions typed in early today and we will make
sure we get them all answered for you asap!
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friends, they want to learn this too!
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recommend it to all of my clients looking for this type of data.
recommend it to all of my clients looking for this type of data.
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