February 16, 2012
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Day Trading Strategies for Dollar Index , Euro, Crude, Russell and Gold futures
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The James’ Report: Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders
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Professional
traders understand the power of observation.
The benefits of stepping back and watching, listening, and then making decisions
based on what you see will reap many rewards in your trading career. Take the time each day to observe rather than
participate and very soon you will be participating more with confidence.
traders understand the power of observation.
The benefits of stepping back and watching, listening, and then making decisions
based on what you see will reap many rewards in your trading career. Take the time each day to observe rather than
participate and very soon you will be participating more with confidence.
***Notes/Observations from around the
world***
world***
Moody’s outlook on
financial institutions weighs upon risk appetite
financial institutions weighs upon risk appetite
–
China FDI declines for the third straight month
China FDI declines for the third straight month
–
Australia Jan Unemployment Rate better than expected
Australia Jan Unemployment Rate better than expected
–
Moody’s warned it may cut the credit
ratings of 17 global and 114 European financial institutions
Moody’s warned it may cut the credit
ratings of 17 global and 114 European financial institutions
–
Greek drama continues to be played out with next Monday, Feb 20th as the next
key date
Greek drama continues to be played out with next Monday, Feb 20th as the next
key date
–
ECB Borrowing below the €1.0B level for the first time since Sept 2011
ECB Borrowing below the €1.0B level for the first time since Sept 2011
–
Spanish government three-tranche bond auction was ‘solid’
Spanish government three-tranche bond auction was ‘solid’
–
European equity indices opened the session lower, weighed down by corporate
earnings and Moody’s warning that it might downgrade more than 100 European
banks.
European equity indices opened the session lower, weighed down by corporate
earnings and Moody’s warning that it might downgrade more than 100 European
banks.
Speakers:
–
Greece PM Papademos said to be meeting with PASOK, ND officials today
Greece PM Papademos said to be meeting with PASOK, ND officials today
–
Greece Fin Min said to downplay escrow account demand as ‘technical issue’ and
accept stepped-up loan oversight. No concerns over possible loan delay
Greece Fin Min said to downplay escrow account demand as ‘technical issue’ and
accept stepped-up loan oversight. No concerns over possible loan delay
–
Swedish Central Bank commented after it cut the repo rate by 25bps that the
country’s economic slowdown had been more severe than expected with growth
likely to be low in period ahead with rising unemployment. It noted that
considerable uncertainty about economic developments abroad but that the Swedish
economy to grow at more normal rate in 2013
Swedish Central Bank commented after it cut the repo rate by 25bps that the
country’s economic slowdown had been more severe than expected with growth
likely to be low in period ahead with rising unemployment. It noted that
considerable uncertainty about economic developments abroad but that the Swedish
economy to grow at more normal rate in 2013
–
China Central Bank (PBoC) Vice Gov commented that it promised to prevent
systemic and regional financial risks and carefully monitor risks in local
banks and private lending market.
China Central Bank (PBoC) Vice Gov commented that it promised to prevent
systemic and regional financial risks and carefully monitor risks in local
banks and private lending market.
–
China state researcher Fan Jianping commented that an interest rate cut by
China was not very likely this year, not likely to cut RRR in Q1. He also noted
that China might set its lowest growth target in eight years between 7.0-7.5%
China state researcher Fan Jianping commented that an interest rate cut by
China was not very likely this year, not likely to cut RRR in Q1. He also noted
that China might set its lowest growth target in eight years between 7.0-7.5%
–
World Gold Council stated that 2011 Global gold demand was at 4,067.1 tons,
+0.4% y/y and that the long term fundamentals remained strong on rising demand
and tight supply. Global demand was
valued at $205.5B compared to $159.5B in 2010 period and the value topped $200B
for the first time ever. Strong investment demand drove 2011 with 1,640.7 tons,
+5% y/y with China demand at 769.8 tons, +20% y/y. The WGC noted that Chine
would likely to surpass India as the
largest buyer in 2012
World Gold Council stated that 2011 Global gold demand was at 4,067.1 tons,
+0.4% y/y and that the long term fundamentals remained strong on rising demand
and tight supply. Global demand was
valued at $205.5B compared to $159.5B in 2010 period and the value topped $200B
for the first time ever. Strong investment demand drove 2011 with 1,640.7 tons,
+5% y/y with China demand at 769.8 tons, +20% y/y. The WGC noted that Chine
would likely to surpass India as the
largest buyer in 2012
–
EU Trade Commissioner de Gucht commented that Europe-China trade was becoming
more balance and the trade gap was narrowing
EU Trade Commissioner de Gucht commented that Europe-China trade was becoming
more balance and the trade gap was narrowing
–
Hungary Central Bank Gov Simor: must pursue-market friendly economic policies
to improve investor confidence to assure economic growth. He stressed that
restoring investor trust was essential for Hungary to reduce its debt levels in
the long-term. Government needed to act and encourage banks to boost their
lending. Central banks must focus on primary mandate and secure a stable
economic environment and that monetary easing might pose financial stability
risk
Hungary Central Bank Gov Simor: must pursue-market friendly economic policies
to improve investor confidence to assure economic growth. He stressed that
restoring investor trust was essential for Hungary to reduce its debt levels in
the long-term. Government needed to act and encourage banks to boost their
lending. Central banks must focus on primary mandate and secure a stable
economic environment and that monetary easing might pose financial stability
risk
–
Hungary Central Bank members Gerhardt and Kocziszky (rate setters) commented
that the central bank should hold rates steady
until country reaches deal with EU/IMF on precautionary loan. The IMF
agreement would strengthen the case for monetary policy easing and that the
govt was clearly committed to EU/IMF deal
Hungary Central Bank members Gerhardt and Kocziszky (rate setters) commented
that the central bank should hold rates steady
until country reaches deal with EU/IMF on precautionary loan. The IMF
agreement would strengthen the case for monetary policy easing and that the
govt was clearly committed to EU/IMF deal
–
Japan Econ Min Furukawa: Gov’t thinking along the same lines as those of BoJ’s
regarding prices
Japan Econ Min Furukawa: Gov’t thinking along the same lines as those of BoJ’s
regarding prices
–
Iran’s letter to EU official was said to have proposed early resumptions of
nuclear discussions with leading nations
Iran’s letter to EU official was said to have proposed early resumptions of
nuclear discussions with leading nations
Currencies:
–
The JPY was mixed against the major pairs.
The USD/JPY hit a 3 month high. Dealers continue to note that the 78.30
remained pivotal support in the pair and the level held despite the drop in the
EUR/JPY cross over the Greek debt concerns. The 78.30 level represented the
upper end of a prior three-month trading range and should act as support.
Interestingly dealers noted that FX intervention would be ‘more effective’ for
the BOJ when the technical picture was favorable and more conducive for
success. Above the 78.30 level would start to provide such a favorable
environment with 80.30 being even more important level.
The JPY was mixed against the major pairs.
The USD/JPY hit a 3 month high. Dealers continue to note that the 78.30
remained pivotal support in the pair and the level held despite the drop in the
EUR/JPY cross over the Greek debt concerns. The 78.30 level represented the
upper end of a prior three-month trading range and should act as support.
Interestingly dealers noted that FX intervention would be ‘more effective’ for
the BOJ when the technical picture was favorable and more conducive for
success. Above the 78.30 level would start to provide such a favorable
environment with 80.30 being even more important level.
–
The EUR/USD probed below the 1.30 handle with continued headwinds from the
Greek situation. The recent spat of weakness started on Wednesday after press
reports circulated that EU finance officials were said to be looking at
proposals to delay all or part of the Greek bailout. During today’s session
Netherlands Fin Min de Jager reiterated the view that Greece had not met all
the conditions (Greece says it did). Monday
The EUR/USD probed below the 1.30 handle with continued headwinds from the
Greek situation. The recent spat of weakness started on Wednesday after press
reports circulated that EU finance officials were said to be looking at
proposals to delay all or part of the Greek bailout. During today’s session
Netherlands Fin Min de Jager reiterated the view that Greece had not met all
the conditions (Greece says it did). Monday
Political/ In the
Papers:
Papers:
–
The FT reported on the possible shifting sentiment towards a Greek default by
some German, Dutch and Finnish officials. A senior euro zone government
official was quoted as saying, ‘It would have led to a credit crunch
immediately and hurt us all; Now, the odds [of such a catastrophic impact] are
something like 10-20%. It’s still possible, but it’s not a certainty’. The
German Finance Minister Schaeuble hinted that Greece might postpone its
elections and put in place a technocratic government free of all political
parties to put in place the bailout program.
The FT reported on the possible shifting sentiment towards a Greek default by
some German, Dutch and Finnish officials. A senior euro zone government
official was quoted as saying, ‘It would have led to a credit crunch
immediately and hurt us all; Now, the odds [of such a catastrophic impact] are
something like 10-20%. It’s still possible, but it’s not a certainty’. The
German Finance Minister Schaeuble hinted that Greece might postpone its
elections and put in place a technocratic government free of all political
parties to put in place the bailout program.
–
The FT noted economists were split on whether or not the EU can survive a Greek
default. Belgium think tank Bruegel’s Wolff stated a default that was orderly
and kept Greece inside the euro zone could prove manageable. But if Greece were
to leave the euro, there could be serious contagion. In contrast, the Centre
for European Policy Studies (CEPS) Gros said he has concerns that policymakers
were persuaded into a false sense of security by ECB president Draghi’s cheap
loans.
The FT noted economists were split on whether or not the EU can survive a Greek
default. Belgium think tank Bruegel’s Wolff stated a default that was orderly
and kept Greece inside the euro zone could prove manageable. But if Greece were
to leave the euro, there could be serious contagion. In contrast, the Centre
for European Policy Studies (CEPS) Gros said he has concerns that policymakers
were persuaded into a false sense of security by ECB president Draghi’s cheap
loans.
–
The Irish Debt Agency (NTMA), on its road show in Asia, is looking to return to
the debt markets in late 2012, or early 2013. The agency reported that the road
show so far has had positive response. In the past, NTMA officials have said
that Ireland was fully funded through 2013. Also, the Irish Finance Minister
Noonan said last December that he was hopeful the country would return to the
bond market by mid-2013, and wanted the NTMA to step up issuance in the
short-term market in H2 of 2012.
The Irish Debt Agency (NTMA), on its road show in Asia, is looking to return to
the debt markets in late 2012, or early 2013. The agency reported that the road
show so far has had positive response. In the past, NTMA officials have said
that Ireland was fully funded through 2013. Also, the Irish Finance Minister
Noonan said last December that he was hopeful the country would return to the
bond market by mid-2013, and wanted the NTMA to step up issuance in the
short-term market in H2 of 2012.
–
Following yesterday’s release of UK unemployment data, Sky News provided
additional insight into the UK labour market. The unemployment count at 2.67M
follows an increase of eight consecutive months. The number claiming
Jobseeker’s Allowance increased for the 11th straight months. It has been three
years since unemployment exceeded the 2M mark. The Chartered Institute of
Personnel and Development (CIPD) chief economist Philipott informed Sky News
that while the figures for the last three months of 2011 were not as bad as
expected, 2012 was going to be a tough year. He added, ‘The problem for 2012 is
that most analysts, including ourselves, expect the economy to grow very slowly
at best and that will inevitably lead to rising unemployment’.
Following yesterday’s release of UK unemployment data, Sky News provided
additional insight into the UK labour market. The unemployment count at 2.67M
follows an increase of eight consecutive months. The number claiming
Jobseeker’s Allowance increased for the 11th straight months. It has been three
years since unemployment exceeded the 2M mark. The Chartered Institute of
Personnel and Development (CIPD) chief economist Philipott informed Sky News
that while the figures for the last three months of 2011 were not as bad as
expected, 2012 was going to be a tough year. He added, ‘The problem for 2012 is
that most analysts, including ourselves, expect the economy to grow very slowly
at best and that will inevitably lead to rising unemployment’.
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Today’s Economic News:
 |
| Day Trading News |
Our
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we
begin the day with major news Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, and Producer
Price Index. Jobless Claims will be the
headlining news this morning and you can see by the chart below that we have
been seeing lower jobless claims for the past 3 straight weeks. Will this trend continue today? The magic number in the past was 400,000
claims, but we’ve been moving away from that number consistently, so we will
see where we end up this morning.
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we
begin the day with major news Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, and Producer
Price Index. Jobless Claims will be the
headlining news this morning and you can see by the chart below that we have
been seeing lower jobless claims for the past 3 straight weeks. Will this trend continue today? The magic number in the past was 400,000
claims, but we’ve been moving away from that number consistently, so we will
see where we end up this morning.
 |
| Jobless Claims News |
900am
EST this morning we have Ben Bernanke giving a speech on ‘Community banking’ at
the FDIC Conference in Arlington, VA. Traders will be listening for clues for
the future during this speech, but we don’t expect this to be very specific for
what traders will be looking for.
EST this morning we have Ben Bernanke giving a speech on ‘Community banking’ at
the FDIC Conference in Arlington, VA. Traders will be listening for clues for
the future during this speech, but we don’t expect this to be very specific for
what traders will be looking for.
930am
EST we will have the US Market Open which means price action will get high
volume and sloppy as traders enter the market from all directions, and we will
sit on hands around the open because of that.
EST we will have the US Market Open which means price action will get high
volume and sloppy as traders enter the market from all directions, and we will
sit on hands around the open because of that.
1000am
EST brings the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, if you recall, we saw the
Empire State manufacturing survey very bullish on Wednesday and today we have a
report from Philadelphia. Like many of
the manufacturing sectors we saw growth early 2012 and we are anxious to see if
this growth will continue today at 10am EST.
EST brings the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, if you recall, we saw the
Empire State manufacturing survey very bullish on Wednesday and today we have a
report from Philadelphia. Like many of
the manufacturing sectors we saw growth early 2012 and we are anxious to see if
this growth will continue today at 10am EST.
 |
| Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
1030am
EST this morning we have a very minor news report in Natural Gas
Inventories. Much like crude oil inventories
impact the crude oil markets specifically, the Nat Gas report will mainly
impact natural gas, so we won’t be using this for much today, but I will make
sure we keep an eye on the clock around 1030am EST in case of a small reaction
in other markets.
EST this morning we have a very minor news report in Natural Gas
Inventories. Much like crude oil inventories
impact the crude oil markets specifically, the Nat Gas report will mainly
impact natural gas, so we won’t be using this for much today, but I will make
sure we keep an eye on the clock around 1030am EST in case of a small reaction
in other markets.
1130am
EST we will finish up this morning with a special webinar planned with Ray from
Ninja Trader, who will be doing an informative training on using Ninja Trader
charts. This event will be open to
everyone, and you can attend this event at 1130am EST this morning by following
this link.
EST we will finish up this morning with a special webinar planned with Ray from
Ninja Trader, who will be doing an informative training on using Ninja Trader
charts. This event will be open to
everyone, and you can attend this event at 1130am EST this morning by following
this link.
Also
please remember our live trade room will be closed tomorrow, Friday, ahead of
the long weekend for President’s Day, and Monday’s a Holiday, so we will be
back in our live trade room on Tuesday morning at 730am EST like always. Happy President’s Day and enjoy the time with
family and the opportunity to rest and research.
please remember our live trade room will be closed tomorrow, Friday, ahead of
the long weekend for President’s Day, and Monday’s a Holiday, so we will be
back in our live trade room on Tuesday morning at 730am EST like always. Happy President’s Day and enjoy the time with
family and the opportunity to rest and research.
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