- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Day Trading Strategies for Dollar Index , Euro, Crude, Russell and Gold futures
—————————————————————————————
The James’ Report: Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders
—————————————————————————————
strategies are always the simplest as well.
As professional traders we are constantly trying to resist the
temptation from un-needed tools in our trading, and trying to over-think the
markets. Professional traders strive to
begin each day like a child, without any knowledge of the past, but the
confidence to tackle the day ahead with a very simple plan.
 |
| Futures Heat Map |
world***
Dow Jones Industrial closes above the 13,000 level for the first time since
2008
Fed member Pianalto: Will take five years to get back to 6% unemployment
Japan fund managers raise global equity weighting in Feb
German Unemployment change slightly weaker than expected but unchanged MoM
ECB 3-year allotment in line with expectations at €529.5B but had 800 banks
participate vs. 523 prior
Markets traded up ahead of ECB’s LTRO which boosted optimism that the second
long-term refinancing operation would ease the tension in the banking sector.
Data showed that the 3-year tender, which was slightly higher than expected,
attracted 800 bidders from 523 prior. Markets are still digesting the news and
are moving erratically but remain in positive territory. Banks rallied during
the session.
EU Leader Summit draft document noted that the region was taking all required
measures to facilitate economic growth and pledge June agreement on pilot phase
of project bonds. The summit to pledge differentiated fiscal consolidation. The
EU saw need to aid banks without excessive deleverage and sought more precise
commitments on reforms and targets
BOE members King, Bean, Tucker and Posen all testified on inflation in Parliament.
BOE Gov King commented that unwinding QE was relatively straight forward
operation with the process is a lot easier compared to stimulating the economy.
The BoE would take whatever action it thought was appropriate on QE and no hard
and fast expectation that BoE was going to do a lot more QE. Main reason for QE was to bring growth in
broad money back to normality
BOE member Posen stated that second round of QE wouldl be as successful as the
first round and that the QE2 now was
different than 2009 because market was not in panic mode. Lastly he noted that
Japan needed to react quickly on its monetary policy.
BOE member Bean stated that he saw a gradual strengthening of UK economy and
that inflation would fall back to target
in the near term. He did caution some uncertainty over further inflation
moderation down the road and noted headwinds from fiscal consolidation and
de-leveraging
uncertain and needed to keep policy under review
BoJ Gov Shirakawa commented to parliament that the central bank would pursue
strong monetary easing policy. The Gov reiterated his view that the central
bank would maintain Zero Rate Policy until the 1.0% price target was in sight.
Japan Fin Min Azumi also noted in Parliament that the BoJ effectively adopted
inflation goals with a clear target of price increases
risk of debt crisis contagion had yet to be overcome
Poland Finance Ministry said to have forecasted its Q4 GDP at 4.3%
Ireland Central Bank dep gov Gerlach: The central banks must do more to assess
risks
Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) released its February Minutes which note that
sluggish Euro Area growth impacted Swedish exports more than expected and concluded
that inflationary pressures were low in the years ahead. Various members echoed
the same theme in their commentary. Gov Ingves noted that he saw big
differences between Northern and Southern Europe in terms of growth while there
were bright spots in US economy. Member Jansson expressed concerned over slow
pace of Euro Area improvement but recent agreement on EU Fiscal Compact was
encouraging. Member Jochnick noted that economic developments in Europe
weakened since December but Europe was on the right path and member
Wickman-Parak added that the European economic slowdown had a pronounced effect
on Sweden’s exports with sSome improvement recently in both domestic and
international data. She added that she could not see any reason to stop the
current rate cuts
German cabinet supported solar-subsidy draft legislation
The FX markets were steady heading into the ECB 3-year lending operation but
overall dealer sentiment was stacked against the greenback due to the LTRO
operation in Europe and the semi-annual testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke. –
The price action was initially choppy following the results of the 3-year LTRO
but the number of banks participating added some concern. The EUR/USD drifted
lower into the NY open around the 1.3440 level. There was some chatter of a
large 1.3500 option barrier in the pair circulating (but unconfirmed).
Papers:
Morgan Stanley had expected banks in Italy and Spain to increase their holdings
of government debt by up to €120B in sovereign debt. Recent data from the ECB
showed that Spanish and Italian banks increased holdings of their country’s
sovereign debt by record amounts in Jan.
Out of Germany, the Frankfurt court banned airport strike action, adding that
impact caused by air traffic controllers announced by the GdF union would be
‘disproportionate’ to the support it would provide for the demands by the
ground workers. The GdF union stated that it would appeal against the court
decision.
The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard looked at the possible implications
from Ireland’s planned referendum on the EU fiscal pact. The move by Irish
officials could lead to clashes with German officials. Although Ireland’s top
political parties support the treaty, some analysts believe there is a high
risk that the measure could be rejected by their voters. Note that Ireland
voted “No” to both the Nice and Lisbon treaties before being made to
vote again. If Ireland rejects the fiscal agreement, it would make it harder
for the company to receive a second EU bailout, if needed.
8:00 (EU) EU’s Barnier speaks at Event in Brussels
–
8:00 (EU) EU’s Barroso
–
8:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Feb Inflation Expectations Survey: No est v
5.2% prior
– 8:30 (US) Q4 Final
GDP Q/Q Annualized: 2.8%e v 2.8% prelim; Personal Consumption: 2.0%e v 2.0%
prelim
– 8:30 (UD) Q4 Final
GDP Price Index: 0.4%e v 0.4% prelim; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.1%e v 1.1% prelim
–
8:30 (BR) Brazil Jan Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): No est v -18.6B prior;
Primary Budget Balance: No est v +1.9B prior; Net Debt to GDP ratio: No est v
36.5% prior
–
9:00 (CA) Canada Dec Teranet/National Bank House price Index M/M: No est v
-0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.1% prior; HPI Index: No est v 149.11 prior
– 9:30 (US) Fed’s
Fisher speaks on economy in Mexico City
–
9:30 (UK) Treasury Minister Hoban testifies on Euro-Area Crisis
– 9:45 (US) Feb Chicago
Purchasing Manager: 61.0e v 60.2 prior
–
9:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.5B in 2019-2025 Gilts in reverse auction
– 10:00 (US) Fed
Chairman Fed’s Bernanke delivers semi-annual Monetary Policy Report
–
10:00 (US) Feb NAPM-Milwaukee: 58.8e v 58.4 prior
– 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE
Energy Inventories
–
10:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flows
–
11:00 (CO) Colombia Jan Urban Unemployment Rate: 10.8%e v 10.4% prior
– 11:00 (EU) EU Juncker before EU Parliament
–
11:00 (IT) Italy PM Monti with Portugal PM Coelho
–
12:00 (GR) Expected ISDA ruling if Greek sovereign credit event occurred
–
12:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel hosts Town Hall on Germany’s Future in
Erfurt
– 13:00 (US) Fed’s
Plosser speaks on economy in New York
– 14:00 (US) Fed
Releases Beige Book Economic Survey
–
14:00 (EU) Denmark PM Thorning-Schmidt speaks at Brussels Think Tank
–
14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Construction Activity M/M: No est v 1.2% prior; Y/Y:
No est v 2.6% prior
–
20:00 (CN) China Feb Manufacturing PMI: 50.8e v 50.5 prior
–
21:30 (CN) China Feb HSBC Manufacturing PMI: No est v 48.8 prior
off the day with a major news event here in the US and we have a day filled with
news that will hopefully give us lots of trading opportunities.
 |
| Today News for Day Traders |
GDP at 830am EST is the
broadest measure of economic activity and its always going to be watched by
traders of all types.
One thing we always notice about the GDP news is the LACK of reaction
from the markets mainly (we assume) because with so much emphasis on 1 news
report the market has already ‘priced in the news’ taking the estimates and
assuming those estimates will be true and placing trades ahead of the news
release that will account for the same result.
Don’t be surprised if the markets sit sideways and sluggish if this news
comes out within the expectations this morning.
If it comes out higher or lower THEN we have some action to look forward
to.
 |
| Quarterly GDP News |
just after the US markets open, we have another important news report, Chicago
PMI,
which is a leading indicator of the recovery because the ‘purchasing managers’
in large companies MUST have a good idea of business conditions when they buy
resources for their companies so this is always being tracked by professional
traders to add ‘fuel’ to the recovery effort, or toss water on it! Beware, this news is released EARLY to
certain people so you will see this news reaction BEFORE the news comes out.
 |
| Chicago PMI News |
we have the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifying in front of the House Budget
Committee which will undoubtedly be on everyone’s monitors
looking for clues to what he is saying.
As the head of the central bank in the US, this guy deserves to be
listened-to when he speaks and this report will come in 2 parts, the first part
is published and read as a statement so there won’t be much of a reaction to
that…the 2nd part is open for live questions so traders will be listening
during his Q&A session for clues in regards to monetary policy and the next
fed meeting.
 |
| Crude Oil Inventories News |
we have our favorite news of the week, crude oil inventories
which is always a big mover for crude oil on Wednesdays. We typically see crude oil prices flat ahead
of this news, so I’m sitting on hands from 1015am EST through the news at
1030am EST and I’m trying NOT to jump right into the market after the news is
released, no matter how confident I am in where price SHOULD go. It’s always important to remember that crude
oil is a fade-the-breakouts type of market personality so when price moves
higher we want to look to sell it when it fails, and vice versa. Also, when this news is released I’m going to
look for the inventory number AND the demand number, which will be used together
to make an educated decision on where the markets should be headed, and then I
wait for the technical pattern to help me enter in the direction I think it
will be moving in the near future. Don’t
expect crude oil to react like normal around this time…so be careful and stay
out of the water if it’s too choppy (or if you just ate, hehe)
This morning will
likely come to a close a little after 1100am EST because we also have
early-afternoon news regarding the Beige Book,
which is nothing more than the ‘notebooks’ used by the 12 different fed
governors to reflect what’s happening in their local areas. In the old days these were actually books
that were brought together when they would meet 8 times a year, but nowadays we
have them done in 1 central location because there is only 1 central bank,
rather than 12 different locations around the US. Look for traders to be watching this closely,
looking for clues for the next FOMC Day in the near future.
for my live news data, and I highly recommend it to all of my clients looking
for this type of data. We have partnered with TTN to provide a FREE Trial of this service by following
this link
