March 7, 2012

Day Trading Strategies for Dollar Index , Euro, Crude, Russell and Gold futures

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The James’ Report:  Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders

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The more we learn as traders, the more
we understand that intelligence plays a very small role in our overall success
in the markets.  Doing the little things
every day, building strong trading habits through a trading plan, staying
disciplined, and always trying to keep it simple are the skills we need as
traders. We don’t need a PhD or Business degree to be successful in the
markets, as long as we remain a ‘student of the markets’ we will learn
everything we need for profitable trades.

***Notes/Observations
from around the world***

Heat Map Futures

European shares steadied but risk aversion remains high as investors anticipate
Greece’s debt restructuring deal and worry about weaker global outlook.


House of Reps votes to approve continuation of duties on some China goods


Australia’s Q4 GDP comes in below expectations


ECB daily deposits off record levels but remain elevated

Speakers:


German cabinet said to have approved EU fiscal pact earlier today


Borsa Italiana suspends Greek bond trading; length of suspension ‘indefinite’


Netherlands Fin Min De Jager commented that concerns over Greece were justified
and he could not give predictions on the success of PSI write-down. He had
received positive messages about Greece’s prior actions but warned that he
would go back to Parliament if PSI write-down was not successful


ECB member Visco commented that the rRising age in the Italian society required
a higher growth rate and the country needed reforms to keep pace with times. He
added that the youth unemployment was around 25% in Southern Italy


Norway Central Bank (Norges) commented that some Euro members were almost under
administration  and that Portugal,
Ireland and Greece are practically shut out of capital markets and countries
including Germany, US, Norway and Sweden were seen as safe havens. Recent ECB
loans were the primary reason that interest rates have moved lower and saw
reasons to be more hopeful at this time but caution that more turmoil could
reappear.


Japan PM Noda commented that he would submit consumption tax hike bill by end
of March even if opposition party did not respond to negotiations. He noted that
the ruling party could negotiate with opposition even after bill was submitted
and he did not intend to use dissolution as a tool


China Banking Regulator (CBRC) stated that the correction in housing prices was
still small and that prices could rebound at any time. Property prices to fall
further but not irrationally” and would impact GDP growth.


China Labor Min Yin commented that the country faced a severe employment
situation and would pursue a more active job policy in 2012 particularly in
service-sector jobs. He noted that China had about CNY1.9T in outstanding
pension funds and that 13 provinces were unable to cover pension payments
without central government aid.

Currencies:


FX markets were relatively steady during the European morning but participants
remained sensitive to any development of the Greek PSI deadline set for
Thursday at 20:00 GMT. The USD was slightly weakness against the major pairs.


The Unwinding of speculative position continued to influence JPY-currency
pairs. The USD/JPY was lower by 15 pips to trade at 80.68 aread of the NY
morning. EUR/JPY probed below the 106 handle during the session.


Far East central banks appeared to be action in FX interventions with dealers
sighting of Indonesia, Taiwan and India during the sessions to curb local
currency weakness. Meanwhile  Brazil has
also vocal in its recent commentary on the BRL strength with fresh press
reports that it might implement fresh measures.

Political/ In the
Papers:


The German cabinet approved the EU fiscal pact earlier today. As a reminder,
the new Treaty requires national budgets to be in balance or in surplus. This
will be achieved if the annual structural government deficit does not exceed
0.5% of nominal GDP. If a member state deviates from this rule, an automatic
correction mechanism will be triggered. The mechanism will fully respect the
prerogatives of national parliaments.


In Italy, the Borsa Italiana suspended Greek bond trading. It remains to be
seen how long the suspension will be in effect.


The German Parliamentary Budget Committee plans to examine the central bank’s
management of its gold reserves. On March 5th, the Bundesbank’s 2011 net profit
was said to have fallen to less than €1.0B compared to €2.2B the prior year.

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Today’s Economic News:

News for Day Traders
This
morning we have all eyes on the ADP employment report at 815am EST which will
be a leading report to Friday’s Non Farm Payroll Jobs report, considered the
biggest report of the quarter.  Look for
early morning volume and volatility as you can see above the Heat Map showing
some moving markets this morning.  If you’re
trading Crude Oil we have an exciting inventories report this morning at 1030am
EST to watch, and if you trade the afternoon session you have Consumer Credit
at 300pm EST today which will also add some spice to the US afternoon session
headed into the close of e-mini’s.

 – 8:15 (US) Feb ADP
Employment Change: 215Ke v 170K prior


8:30 (CA) Canada Jan Building Permits M/M: -3.2%e v +11.1% prior


8:30 (US) Q4 Final Nonfarm Productivity: 0.8%e v 0.7% prelim; Unit Labor Costs:
1.2%e v 1.2% prelim


9:00 (BE) Belgium Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: No est v -0.2% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 0.9%
prelim


9:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Gross Fixed Investment: No est v 6.7% prior


9:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.5B in 2019-2025 Gilts in reverse auction    


10:00 (HU) Hungary Feb YTD Budget Balance (HUF): No est v 107.3B prior


10:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flows    


10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Energy Inventories


13:00 (DE) German Econ Min Roesler


13:15 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at event in Florence    

– 15:00 (US) Jan
Consumer Credit: $10.0Be v $19.3B prior


15:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to
leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.50%


18:50 (JP) Japan Q4 Final Gross Domestic Product Q/Q: No est v -0.6% prelim;
Nominal GDP Q/Q: No est v -0.8% prelim; GDP Annualized: No est v -2.3% prelim


18:50 (JP) Japan Jan Current Account Balance Y/Y: No est v -74.7% prior


18:50 (JP) Japan Jan Trade Balance : No est v -¥145.8B prior


19:30 (AU) Australia Feb Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.1% prior; Full Time
Employment Change: No est v +12.3K prior

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