April 19, 2012

Day trading strategy for the dollar index correlation

The dollar index heat map says
the markets is rising +0.3 which means we will now consider selling retracements
as the high-percentage trades today using the negative correlation.  We also see on the 89-range chart that we
have a few big concerns from this technical analysis.  We can see the short term and long term price
wedge structure, which tells us to sell the highs/resistance and buy the
lows/support and with the flat trigger lines we know this market does not have
confidence going higher or lower.  Our best
strategy for the dollar index will be to look for the best trading
opportunities around the highs and the lows of this range.  So look for the dollar index around the lows
of the price wedge for the best selling opportunities and around the highs of
the price wedge for the best buying opportunities.
The 13-range on the dollar index shows
us a BIG CLUE, just like yesterday, the price action on the dollar index is
making us think there will be a reversal soon this morning.  The dollar index has been rising this morning
above the short term price wedge, and whenever we break the highs of a price
wedge we’re looking for fake-out breakout so we can sell it back into the range
below.  If the dollar index rises higher
its going to run into resistance overhead at the PHOD so we will expect the dollar
to do 1 of 3 things; it may reverse, it may keep going higher, or it may stall
and trade sideways.  Knowing these three scenarios
we can be prepared.  If price falls I’m buying
pullbacks, if price rises I’m selling retracements and if the market stalls at
the PHOD I need to sit on hands.

This morning we expect the dollar index to fall
off these highs back into the price wedge below it.  Price may go as high as the PHOD and then
reverse, but the market personality on the dollar index and the day trading
strategy for a price wedge tells us to look for the fake-out breakout.

    schooloftrade

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