August 15, 2012

Morning dollar index Checklist:

Dollar Index Chart Prep

Heat
Map:  What is it telling us?
Heat map
says the dollar index is bullish this morning, moving higher by +0.3%.  this correlation with the rising dollar index
tells us that selling short will be the
high-percentage trades today.

OHLC Analysis:
OHLC
analysis gives us a BIG CLUE that the heat may soon be outdated and incorrect
for the current market personality.  We
tried to push new higher-highs and those buyers failed.  With this failure we expect the price to come
back down to the next level of major support.

Are we
inside or outside day today?
We are
outside day, above the PHOD this tells us the buyers are in control, however,
we are seeing signs that a failure may occur.

What
price-structures do we see?
·       Trigger-zone are above us as resistance
and below us as support.
·       AB=CD Pattern is bullish and we are
approaching the ‘C’ point, which is the line in the sand for a failure of the AB=CD
Pattern.
·       Price wedge is bullish because we
have a bull price channel also.
·       Sideways Ranges from 82.945 down to
82.250 and we are currently NOT at either of the highs or lows, in the middle.
·       Double-top / Double-bottom neither
are seen on the 21-range.

Where
will a reversal be likely today?
We can
assume the trigger-zone resistance and the ‘C’ point ( 82.945) will be the
locations for the price-reversal.  We are
expecting the price on the dollar index to reverse from its bullish moves to
now falling off these highs and dropping back down to the PHOD.

What is
our trading plan for today?
We don’t trade
the dollar index, we use the negative correlation.  This means resistance overhead on this dollar
index chart will effectively become support on markets such as Crude Oil, E-Mini-Russell,
euro, and gold futures.  If the price
falls lower off the highs from overnight, we then know to be buying the markets
we trade.

    schooloftrade

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