September 10, 2013
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Crude Oil Day trading strategy; Morning Prep Screen to Floor 09/00/13
Focus-Points this
morning:
· Syria strike risks are lower today
after Russia proposed that Syria put tis chemical weapons under international
control or destroy them in order to avert western military action.
after Russia proposed that Syria put tis chemical weapons under international
control or destroy them in order to avert western military action.
o
Iran
and China showed support for this proposal
Iran
and China showed support for this proposal
· (US) President Obama to meet with
Republican Senators today, and will air 6 different prime-time TV interviews trying
to rally support for a military strike on Syria.
Republican Senators today, and will air 6 different prime-time TV interviews trying
to rally support for a military strike on Syria.
· Risk appetite continues to rise on
positive news from China
positive news from China
· Chinese Retail Sales hit 7-month
highs
highs
· Traders continue to look forward to
the September 17th FOMC Meeting, next Wednesday.
the September 17th FOMC Meeting, next Wednesday.
· IEA’s Head Van Der Hoeven says ‘oil
market is sufficiently supplied’, sending Crude Oil prices lower overnight.
market is sufficiently supplied’, sending Crude Oil prices lower overnight.
Economic News on the
schedule today:
schedule today:
 |
| Crude Oil News |
This morning the news calendar is very light, with most
traders focused on the developments coming from China’s positive news overnight
and the developing story out of Syria.
Today President Obama meets with Republican leads in the US in hopes to
find a final solution.
traders focused on the developments coming from China’s positive news overnight
and the developing story out of Syria.
Today President Obama meets with Republican leads in the US in hopes to
find a final solution.
The only report we have to consider today is the JOLTS report
(minor news) which is expected to see a tick lower this morning at 10:00am EST.
(minor news) which is expected to see a tick lower this morning at 10:00am EST.
On days without any major news to work with we must assume
the price-action will be a little sluggish at the opening-bell, however we have
a LOT of geo-political news that is coming out today to keep us busy looking
for high-percentage-trades.
the price-action will be a little sluggish at the opening-bell, however we have
a LOT of geo-political news that is coming out today to keep us busy looking
for high-percentage-trades.
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Crude Oil Analysis:
Crude Oil is falling lower this morning after news from Syria
is calming everyone’s nerves regarding a possible military strike, and reacting
to major resistance zones overhead.
is calming everyone’s nerves regarding a possible military strike, and reacting
to major resistance zones overhead.
 |
| Crude Oil Anchor Chart #1 |
We begin with the anchor chart #1 this morning and we can see
price-action has tested the support zone at 108.74 and we are sitting inside
this zone at this time.
price-action has tested the support zone at 108.74 and we are sitting inside
this zone at this time.
Prices fell off the resistance zone at 110.52 (just as we
predicted on Monday) so we have been selling short on Crude Oil since the
beginning of the week. Now, we sit-on-hands
and take our profit while price-action sits on top of support. Once we get a new lower-low we will then get
back into the short trading down to 107.61.
predicted on Monday) so we have been selling short on Crude Oil since the
beginning of the week. Now, we sit-on-hands
and take our profit while price-action sits on top of support. Once we get a new lower-low we will then get
back into the short trading down to 107.61.
 |
| Crude Oil Anchor Chart #2 |
We move to the Anchor chart #2, and just as predicted on Monday,
we see price-action has moved lower and tested the support level at
108.22. This support level is in
addition to the support zone on the Anchor Chart #1, so we know there is a LOT
of support here and we need to wait to get into our next selling-opportunity
with new lower-lows.
we see price-action has moved lower and tested the support level at
108.22. This support level is in
addition to the support zone on the Anchor Chart #1, so we know there is a LOT
of support here and we need to wait to get into our next selling-opportunity
with new lower-lows.
Last, but not least, we look at the 30-Minute VIP chart to get
an idea of what’s happened coming out of London and we can see some very
important clues that will help us look for trading opportunities this morning.
an idea of what’s happened coming out of London and we can see some very
important clues that will help us look for trading opportunities this morning.
 |
| Crude Oil VIP Chart |
First, we can see there is yet another narrow trading-range coming
out of the London trading Session. We
typically see a $1.00 trading-range from the overnight London trading Session however
today we only had $.47 which tells us the markets are waiting for something.
out of the London trading Session. We
typically see a $1.00 trading-range from the overnight London trading Session however
today we only had $.47 which tells us the markets are waiting for something.
Second, we can see price-action on Crude Oil moving BELOW the
PLOD, which is a
PLOD, which is a
very bearish signal for us, and we will sell short from below
the PLOD down to the next major support level, which is the low of day from 09/05/13
at 107.13. We may also be able to use
the 106.58 PLOD as a runner profit-target.
the PLOD down to the next major support level, which is the low of day from 09/05/13
at 107.13. We may also be able to use
the 106.58 PLOD as a runner profit-target.
Third, we can see the previous week’s lows at 104.21, which
is going to be our ‘home run’ profit-target this morning for the selling-opportunities
today. If the news starts to come out
ahead of Obama’s interview this evening we may see this price-action start to
run HARD to the lows.
is going to be our ‘home run’ profit-target this morning for the selling-opportunities
today. If the news starts to come out
ahead of Obama’s interview this evening we may see this price-action start to
run HARD to the lows.
 |
| Crude Oil PIT Session Levels |
If we see this market
personality take off to the downside we know exactly where it wants to go and we
will hold our runner profit-target all the way down to 104.21.
