January 22, 2014
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Day Trading Newsletter 01/22/14; SchoolOfTrade.com
“What we can or cannot do; what we consider
possible or impossible; is rarely a function of our true capability. It is more
likely a function of our beliefs about who we are.”
Reflections from Today:
·
Crude
Oil pushed higher +177ticks (+1.60% @ 96.75)
Crude
Oil pushed higher +177ticks (+1.60% @ 96.75)
·
Gold
drops again -80 ticks (-.30%) @ 1236.3)
Gold
drops again -80 ticks (-.30%) @ 1236.3)
·
Mini-Russell
went higher +109 ticks (+.60% @ 1179.0)
Mini-Russell
went higher +109 ticks (+.60% @ 1179.0)
·
No
major news + Winter Storm = Low Volume today (6% below avg)
No
major news + Winter Storm = Low Volume today (6% below avg)
·
Low
volume made us stay patient
Low
volume made us stay patient
·
News
returns to the market Thursday (see below)
News
returns to the market Thursday (see below)
·
API
Crude Oil Inventories +4.86M (first build in 4 weeks)
API
Crude Oil Inventories +4.86M (first build in 4 weeks)
·
Earning
Season continued; IBM, AMD, TXN, GD, UTX
Earning
Season continued; IBM, AMD, TXN, GD, UTX
·
Politicians
continue to push raising interest rates into 2015
Politicians
continue to push raising interest rates into 2015
Economic News for Tomorrow:
Tomorrow we
will finally get some economic news that we can use for high-percentage-trades and
not a moment too late! This week has
been missing the major news to get the price-action moving well for us, so we
are excited for a day filled with Red-Star news events on Thursday.
will finally get some economic news that we can use for high-percentage-trades and
not a moment too late! This week has
been missing the major news to get the price-action moving well for us, so we
are excited for a day filled with Red-Star news events on Thursday.
8:30am EST Jobless
Claims
Claims
8:58am EST PMI
Manufacturing Index
Manufacturing Index
10:00am EST Existing
Home Sales
Home Sales
11:00am EST Crude
Oil Inventories*
Oil Inventories*
* On Wednesday evening we saw the API Report
was +4.86M barrels, which is the first increase of inventories in over 4 weeks*
was +4.86M barrels, which is the first increase of inventories in over 4 weeks*
Day trading plan for Tomorrow:
Crude Oil:
VIP Chart:
 |
| Crude Oil VIP Chart |
Crude Oil showed just how bullish the market-personality really
is this morning trading much higher by the closing-bell that the initial volume
in the market suggested.
is this morning trading much higher by the closing-bell that the initial volume
in the market suggested.
We can see a BULLISH 2-day relationship, a wide trading-range
from today, and a BULLISH closing-print near the highs.
from today, and a BULLISH closing-print near the highs.
This information tells me that tomorrow we expect to see a
narrower trading-range, while it appears the bulls will continue to be in
control over this price-action.
narrower trading-range, while it appears the bulls will continue to be in
control over this price-action.
The most important clue tomorrow will be the opening-print;
if we open above 96.89 we are bullish on the day. If we open inside the range from Wednesday we
are 2-sided trading, and if we open below the 95.64 we are bearish and selling
short tomorrow morning.
if we open above 96.89 we are bullish on the day. If we open inside the range from Wednesday we
are 2-sided trading, and if we open below the 95.64 we are bearish and selling
short tomorrow morning.
Anchor Chart:
 |
| Crude Oil Anchor Chart |
Crude Oil pushed much higher this morning and our anchor
chart shows us testing the major resistance level overhead at 96.81.
chart shows us testing the major resistance level overhead at 96.81.
We are going to be patient to wait and see where the traders
want to take it from here because I can easily see it moving both ways with
ease.
want to take it from here because I can easily see it moving both ways with
ease.
First, we see a bullish price channel, a green ‘cloud’ with higher-highs
and higher-lows which ALL suggest this market is in the hands of the buyers.
and higher-lows which ALL suggest this market is in the hands of the buyers.
We have a green light to start buying with a wave-pattern
long as soon as we see another higher-high, so our members should be looking
for a wave-pattern long this evening and into tomorrow morning.
long as soon as we see another higher-high, so our members should be looking
for a wave-pattern long this evening and into tomorrow morning.
Second, we are likely to move LOWER before we move HIGHER
this evening and overnight into tomorrow, so we have identified some key support
levels we will be watching closely for buying opportunities this evening and
tomorrow morning.
this evening and overnight into tomorrow, so we have identified some key support
levels we will be watching closely for buying opportunities this evening and
tomorrow morning.
If price-action never moves lower and we keep pushing to new
highs overnight we have the GREEN LIGHT to keep buying pullbacks and using the
100.00 big-round-number as an easy profit-target for the buy-side tonight and
tomorrow.
highs overnight we have the GREEN LIGHT to keep buying pullbacks and using the
100.00 big-round-number as an easy profit-target for the buy-side tonight and
tomorrow.
Gold:
VIP Chart:
 |
| Gold VIP Chart |
Gold looks exhausted this evening as it traded sideways in
most of today’s trading session ahead of tomorrow’s Red-Star news events
starting early in the session.
most of today’s trading session ahead of tomorrow’s Red-Star news events
starting early in the session.
We can see a bearish 2-day relationship, along with a narrow trading-range
and a bearish closing-print at the end of the session today. All of these signs tell us to keep looking
for selling opportunities this evening and into tomorrow morning.
and a bearish closing-print at the end of the session today. All of these signs tell us to keep looking
for selling opportunities this evening and into tomorrow morning.
The big clue I see on the VIP chart this evening is this very
narrow trading-range, which often times is a clue that tomorrow will be a VERY
WIDE RANGE type of day. If the sellers
continue to push lower, we may be in for a very wild ride tomorrow on Gold as
the market-sentiment continues to scream ‘bears are in control’.
narrow trading-range, which often times is a clue that tomorrow will be a VERY
WIDE RANGE type of day. If the sellers
continue to push lower, we may be in for a very wild ride tomorrow on Gold as
the market-sentiment continues to scream ‘bears are in control’.
Anchor Chart:
| Gold Anchor Chart 1 |
The anchor chart is NOT the place to look if you’re trying to
find reasons to BUY Gold right now, we see another set of big clues telling us
to look for selling opportunities this evening and into tomorrow.
find reasons to BUY Gold right now, we see another set of big clues telling us
to look for selling opportunities this evening and into tomorrow.
We have a triple-threat right now, long and short term trends
are down, and we are BELOW the important moving-averages that we watch on our
anchor charts.
are down, and we are BELOW the important moving-averages that we watch on our
anchor charts.
All of these signs tell us we have the GREEN LIGHT to begin
selling short right now on Gold and using the profit-targets below us at 34.9,
32.6, 30.1 and then a big jump down to a juicy profit-target at 1221.7.
selling short right now on Gold and using the profit-targets below us at 34.9,
32.6, 30.1 and then a big jump down to a juicy profit-target at 1221.7.
| Gold Anchor Chart 2 |
I think there is a decent shot that we tumble all the way
down to 1221.7 on Thursday/Friday this week, especially since we have some
important Red-Star news events on the calendar for Thursday.
down to 1221.7 on Thursday/Friday this week, especially since we have some
important Red-Star news events on the calendar for Thursday.
Mini-Russell:
VIP Chart:
 |
| Mini-Russell VIP Chart |
The equity indexes (emini’s) are laughing all the way to new higher-highs
while Gold is getting crushed this week.
while Gold is getting crushed this week.
We can see big clues from this VIP chart; bullish 2-day
relationship, and a bullish closing-print tell us that not only have we been
bullish over this last 2 days of the week, but we are closing the session with
the buyers in complete control over this price-action.
relationship, and a bullish closing-print tell us that not only have we been
bullish over this last 2 days of the week, but we are closing the session with
the buyers in complete control over this price-action.
The biggest clue we need next is the opening-bell tomorrow morning
at 930am EST. If we open above the 80.1
we are bullish and looking for buying opportunities. If we open below the 71.3 we are bearish and
ready to sell short down to the PLOD at 1164.0.
If we open INSIDE the range from Wednesday we will assume this price-action
is ‘balanced’ so we will buy the lows at 1171.3 and sell the highs at 1180.1
looking for clues of a successful breakout and then we can trade in the
direction of the breakout.
at 930am EST. If we open above the 80.1
we are bullish and looking for buying opportunities. If we open below the 71.3 we are bearish and
ready to sell short down to the PLOD at 1164.0.
If we open INSIDE the range from Wednesday we will assume this price-action
is ‘balanced’ so we will buy the lows at 1171.3 and sell the highs at 1180.1
looking for clues of a successful breakout and then we can trade in the
direction of the breakout.
Anchor Chart:
The anchor
chart on the Mini-Russell has nothing but bullish clues for us this evening.
chart on the Mini-Russell has nothing but bullish clues for us this evening.
 |
| Mini-Russell Anchor Chart |
We have a
triple-threat moving higher; long term, short term and the cloud are ALL
bullish, and we’re above the moving-averages on this anchor chart.
triple-threat moving higher; long term, short term and the cloud are ALL
bullish, and we’re above the moving-averages on this anchor chart.
We have
GREEN LIGHT to begin buying pullbacks on the Mini-Russell this evening and into
tomorrow. I would recommend we try to
wait for price to pull off the resistance of 1180.3 before we start
buying. We will want to see a new higher-high
above the 80.3 or a pullback down to the support zone at 1175.7 where we will
have an excellent opportunity to get long tomorrow morning.
GREEN LIGHT to begin buying pullbacks on the Mini-Russell this evening and into
tomorrow. I would recommend we try to
wait for price to pull off the resistance of 1180.3 before we start
buying. We will want to see a new higher-high
above the 80.3 or a pullback down to the support zone at 1175.7 where we will
have an excellent opportunity to get long tomorrow morning.
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