May 21, 2014
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
3 Ways to Trade Crude Oil Thursday | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 05-21-14
“What we can or cannot do, what we consider possible or impossible, is rarely a function of our true capability. It is more likely a function of our beliefs about who we are.”
Today’s Newsletter:
· Last Night: Crude Oil goes to $104, cashing big paychecks!
· Markets Today: Crude Oil goes LONG, Mini-Russell and Gold sideways
· News for Tomorrow: Jobless Claims & Homes Sales
· Trading Opportunities: Price wedges on Gold and Mini-Russell, expecting a pullback on Crude Oil
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The Markets Today:
Crude Oil:
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Crude Oil Futures VIP Chart |
Just as we expected, Crude Oil pushed higher today all the way up to the $104/barrel big-round-number after Inventory news was released, and then traded sideways the remainder of the day.
We opened higher, closed at the highs, and we have ALL the volume near the $104 big-round-number. This tells us clearly that the buyers are in control right now, so we are continuing to look for buying opportunities long-term, but in the short term we are looking for clues to what direction this price-action moves tomorrow.
Most Important thing I see on this chart:
The most important clues on this VIP chart is the volume at the highs of the range, which confirms the strength of the buyers right now.
In addition, the GAP that was never filled below us may act like a price-magnet which will bring prices back down before they go higher.
Important Levels to Watch for Crude Oil tomorrow:
· HOD/LOD: 104.29 / 103.04
· PHOD/PLOD: 102.49 / 101.69
· PW-H/L: 102.29 / 100.00
· PW-O/C: 100.05 / 101.56
Make sure you register for our Nightly-Newsletter on our website so you don’t miss these winning trading opportunities next time!
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Gold:
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Gold Futures VIP Chart |
Gold continues to trade sideways, inside the trading-range from last week with a slight bearish tone to it this evening.
Today Gold opened in the middle of Tuesday’s range, but closed at the lows and all the volume at the lows of today’s range.
Another narrow range today tells us that we have SOMETHING BIG on the way, and we will be waiting patiently for that big move.
Most Important thing I see on this chart:
The most important aspect of this VIP chart is the volume near the lows of the range for today, which tells us the bears have the upper-hand and we will be watching for a break to new lower-lows on Thursday.
Important Levels to Watch for Gold tomorrow:
· HOD/LOD: 1293.3 / 1286.3
· PHOD/PLOD: 1297.2 / 1286.0
· PW-H/L: 1309.2 / 1288.1
· PW-O/C: 1296.1 / 1293.3
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Mini-Russell:
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Mini-Russell Futures VIP Chart |
The Mini-Russell traded sideways today, inside the range from Tuesday and right on top of the big-round-number at $1100 which is also the prior-week’s closing price.
The market-personality on the Mini-Russell is clearly balanced, which means we will be staying patient for breakouts, while buying the lows and selling the highs.
Most Important thing I see on this chart:
The big-round-number of $1100 and the prior-week close in the middle of this week’s range tell us this market-personality is balanced, which is very important for our trading opportunities on Thursday.
Additionally, we are watching the levels at the highs and the lows very closely. Keep an eye on the prior-week open at 1111.3 and the prior-week low down at 1078.7 for easy trading opportunities later this week.
Important Levels to Watch for Mini-Russell tomorrow:
· HOD/LOD: 1106.1 / 1090.0
· PHOD/PLOD: 1110.7 / 1088.6
· PW-H/L: 1136.1 / 1078.7
· PW-O/C: 1111.3 / 1099.2
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News Tomorrow:
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Economic news for Thursday |
Tomorrow morning we have more Red-Star News on the calendar, so we will be watching closely to see more trading opportunities starting at 8:30am EST.
We begin with Jobless Claims, which have been on the way lower for the last 6 months, but we know that this report is skewed because of the people leaving the job market.
Although we don’t trust the Jobless Claims number, we know that a lot of traders WILL be watching, so we will be looking for the reaction after 8:30am EST.
Later in the morning we have the BIG NEWS of the session, in the form of Manufacturing at 9:45am, and then Existing Home Sales at 10:00am EST.
We have seen a lot of trading opportunities around the housing market news, and we are hoping tomorrow is more of the same.
· 8:30am EST: Jobless Claims
· 9:45am EST: PMI Manufacturing
· 10:00am EST: Existing Home Sales
Memorial Day Weekend Ahead:
Please be aware we have a short week ahead of us, with the very popular Memorial Day Weekend ahead of us in the US, which is the un-official start of summer. We will start worrying about the Holiday weekend on Thursday afternoon.
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Day Trading Opportunities for Tomorrow:
Crude Oil:
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Crude Oil Futures *SLOW* Anchor Chart |
Crude Oil pushed higher today, all the way up to the big-round-number at $104/barrel.
Now that we are trading at these new highs, we are expecting to see some profit-taking overnight and possibly into tomorrow morning’s session in the US before trying to push higher.
At this time we have three scenarios to consider. First, if we push higher we will resume buying pullbacks on the way to the targets above us at 104.68, 105.22, and 106.51.
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Crude Oil Futures *FAST* Anchor Chart |
Second, if we trade sideways we will stay patient and sit-on-hands until we see a well-defined trading-range and then we can sell-the-highs at resistance and buy-the-lows at support inside this range.
Third, if we push lower we will sell short using the Wave Pattern with a profit-target down at 102.99 or the trend-line support below us. One thing to remember is that selling short will be counter-trend, so be sure to keep the stop-loss tight and the profit-target aggressive on the way down.
Short-Term Trading & Scalping: Please join us tomorrow in our Live Trade Room for short-term trades called with exact entry and exit information.
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Gold:
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Gold Futures Anchor Chart |
Gold continues to trade sideways inside the price wedge on our anchor chart this evening. We have a slight bearish tone to the price-action this evening, but we still have the same day trading plan for tomorrow.
Our day trading plan for Gold is the same as it was last night; we are buying the lows at support levels (1281.4, 1278.5, 1273.8) and selling the highs at resistance levels (1299.4 and 1303.2).
Short-Term Trading & Scalping: Please join us tomorrow in our Live Trade Room for short-term trades called with exact entry and exit information.
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Mini-Russell :
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Mini-Russell Futures Anchor Chart |
Mini-Russell is also trading sideways this evening, almost to the end of the price wedge we found on the anchor chart. We are very close to breaking out of this price wedge so we will be ready for ANYTHING on Thursday.
Our day trading plan on Mini-Russell is very similar to Gold futures; we are buying the lows (1086.5, 1082.9) and selling the highs (1112.3, 1109.6) while avoiding the middle of the range.
In addition to this price wedge we are also watching the last 2 weeks of new lows (05/09 and 05/15) because we are expecting the sellers to try to make new lows again tomorrow or Friday.
We will be ready if the sellers try to take this price-action lower to the target at 1060.0
Short-Term Trading & Scalping: Please join us tomorrow in our Live Trade
Room for short-term trades called with exact entry and exit information.
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