February 6, 2014
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
9 Ways to Trade Non-Farm Payrolls| SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 02/06/14
“Goals
are a means to an end, not the ultimate purpose of our lives. They are simply a
tool to concentrate our focus and move us in a direction. The only reason we
really pursue goals is to cause ourselves to expand and grow. Achieving goals
by themselves will never make us happy in the long term; it’s who you become,
as you overcome the obstacles necessary to achieve your goals, that can give
you the deepest and most long-lasting sense of fulfillment.”
Reflections from Today:
·
Crude
Oil went higher (+0.66% @ 97.96)
Crude
Oil went higher (+0.66% @ 97.96)
·
Gold
higher, but ended flat (+0.02% @ 1257.6)
Gold
higher, but ended flat (+0.02% @ 1257.6)
·
Mini-Russell
went higher (0.75% @ 1098.5)
Mini-Russell
went higher (0.75% @ 1098.5)
·
Red-Star
News got markets moving early today
Red-Star
News got markets moving early today
·
Jobless
Claims come in lower (331k)
Jobless
Claims come in lower (331k)
·
International
Trade shows sluggish exports; emerging markets struggle
International
Trade shows sluggish exports; emerging markets struggle
·
Equities
starting to show signs of recovery (bargain hunting)
Equities
starting to show signs of recovery (bargain hunting)
·
Twitter
getting pummeled today, down 21%
getting pummeled today, down 21%
·
Feb
6th, 1952 Princess
Elizabeth becomes the new Queen @ age 27
Feb
6th, 1952 Princess
Elizabeth becomes the new Queen @ age 27
·
All
eyes shift to Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll Report
All
eyes shift to Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll Report
Economic News for Tomorrow:
 |
| Economic News Tomorrow |
Friday
morning begins with Non-Farm Payrolls, which is the most important news event
we see as day traders.
morning begins with Non-Farm Payrolls, which is the most important news event
we see as day traders.
Do you
remember January’s Non-Farm Payroll report?
The bad weather in December, along with a sluggish economy led to a very
disappointing report in January, which means that Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report
for January may be a sharp contract higher or lower.
remember January’s Non-Farm Payroll report?
The bad weather in December, along with a sluggish economy led to a very
disappointing report in January, which means that Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report
for January may be a sharp contract higher or lower.
Remember, if
you plan on trading Non-Farm Payroll news tomorrow I recommend staying patient
and waiting 15-minutes after the report is released so that you don’t get in too
early before we find a trend to follow.
you plan on trading Non-Farm Payroll news tomorrow I recommend staying patient
and waiting 15-minutes after the report is released so that you don’t get in too
early before we find a trend to follow.
If the news
tomorrow comes out ‘outside of expectations’ that will cause the market-personality
to become violent and dangerous to try to trade until it calms down and finds a
direction.
tomorrow comes out ‘outside of expectations’ that will cause the market-personality
to become violent and dangerous to try to trade until it calms down and finds a
direction.
If the news
tomorrow comes out ‘inside of expectations’ that will cause the market to trade
in a very narrow range because the news report will have already been ‘priced
into the market’.
tomorrow comes out ‘inside of expectations’ that will cause the market to trade
in a very narrow range because the news report will have already been ‘priced
into the market’.
Eventually
the price-action will breakout in one direction, and when it does we want to be
trading in that direction with a runner profit-target to catch the big move
that often follows this report.
the price-action will breakout in one direction, and when it does we want to be
trading in that direction with a runner profit-target to catch the big move
that often follows this report.
8:30am EST: January’s
Non-Farm Payroll Report
Non-Farm Payroll Report
Day trading plan for Tomorrow:
Crude Oil:
VIP Chart:
 |
| Crude Oil VIP Chart |
Crude Oil pushed higher this morning, testing the prior week’s
highs at 98.59 before collapsing back down into the range from Wednesday. This move was very typical for the day before
Non-Farm Payroll news is released.
Tomorrow, I am looking
for an opening-print above 98.83 to begin looking for buying opportunities or below
97.44 to look for selling opportunities.
for an opening-print above 98.83 to begin looking for buying opportunities or below
97.44 to look for selling opportunities.
Anchor Chart:
 |
| Crude Oil Anchor Chart 34 |
Like most of the other charts we see this evening, Crude Oil’s
anchor chart shows us consolidating around the 89.00 big-round-number as we go
into major news tomorrow morning.
anchor chart shows us consolidating around the 89.00 big-round-number as we go
into major news tomorrow morning.
 |
| Crude Oil Anchor Chart 21 |
The (34) anchor shows us trapped at the highs of a price
wedge just below 98.00. We have major resistance
above us at 98.82 and support below at 95.21.
wedge just below 98.00. We have major resistance
above us at 98.82 and support below at 95.21.
 |
| Crude Oil Anchor Chart 13 |
Looking further, the (13) anchor chart shows us clearly in an
up-trend, bouncing off the buy-zone at 97.82.
If we can get back above 98.00 (and the key moving-averages on this
chart) we can confidently buy long up to a profit-target at the prior week
highs at 98.59.
up-trend, bouncing off the buy-zone at 97.82.
If we can get back above 98.00 (and the key moving-averages on this
chart) we can confidently buy long up to a profit-target at the prior week
highs at 98.59.
I am waiting, sitting-on-hands
until after we see tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll report and then I will use this
information to make an educated decision for where my next trade will be.
until after we see tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll report and then I will use this
information to make an educated decision for where my next trade will be.
Gold:
VIP Chart:
 |
| Gold VIP Chart |
Gold went on another roller-coaster ride this morning,
reacting to the Red-Star News early in the session, only to collapse back down
into the same range it started from. We
had a great session trading Gold this morning in our Live Trade Room!
We are trading ‘in
balance’ on the VIP chart going into Friday’s Red-Star News, and I am looking
for an opening-print above 1267.5 to start buying, or below 1252.5 to start
selling tomorrow morning.
balance’ on the VIP chart going into Friday’s Red-Star News, and I am looking
for an opening-print above 1267.5 to start buying, or below 1252.5 to start
selling tomorrow morning.
Anchor Chart:
 |
| Gold Anchor Chart 34 |
The anchor chart of Gold looks very similar to Crude Oil,
with a bullish trend on the (34) anchor but the short-term trend is clearly
sideways and price-action is consolidating around the 1250.0 area. We can see major support below at 1245.7, and
resistance above at 1271.1.
with a bullish trend on the (34) anchor but the short-term trend is clearly
sideways and price-action is consolidating around the 1250.0 area. We can see major support below at 1245.7, and
resistance above at 1271.1.
 |
| Gold Anchor Chart 13 |
As we move to the (13) anchor chart we can see lower-highs and
higher-lows in the price-action which tells us we have a consolidating market
and a price wedge. We can see support below
at 1252.7 and 1245.7 along with resistance above at 1264.3 and 1269.6.
higher-lows in the price-action which tells us we have a consolidating market
and a price wedge. We can see support below
at 1252.7 and 1245.7 along with resistance above at 1264.3 and 1269.6.
My plan for Gold is to
wait patiently for the release of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll report and then
make an educated decision from there after we see the news and the REACTION to
that news from the market participants.
wait patiently for the release of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll report and then
make an educated decision from there after we see the news and the REACTION to
that news from the market participants.
Mini-Russell:
VIP Chart:
 |
| Russell VIP Chart |
The Mini-Russell pushed higher this morning on bullish
Jobless Claims news and optimism for the future ahead of tomorrow’s Non-Farm
Payroll news, which is expected to be very bullish.
Jobless Claims news and optimism for the future ahead of tomorrow’s Non-Farm
Payroll news, which is expected to be very bullish.
We had a narrow trading-range today, even though we had many trading
opportunities inside that range, which points to a very WIDE range in tomorrow’s
trading session.
opportunities inside that range, which points to a very WIDE range in tomorrow’s
trading session.
I’m waiting for
tomorrow’s news release, but if we see the opening-print above 1105.2 I will
begin looking for buying opportunities, and below 1093.7 I’m looking for selling
opportunities.
tomorrow’s news release, but if we see the opening-print above 1105.2 I will
begin looking for buying opportunities, and below 1093.7 I’m looking for selling
opportunities.
Anchor Chart:
 |
| Russell Anchor Chart 34 |
The Mini-Russell looks very bearish on the (34) anchor chart
this evening. We can see a long term
bearish price channel and we are below last week’s lows and below the big-round-number
of 1100.0. We can also see that current
price at 1098.0 is pushing into the highs of the bearish price channel so
trying to buy this area will be a challenge, as smart traders will look to sell
this resistance area.
this evening. We can see a long term
bearish price channel and we are below last week’s lows and below the big-round-number
of 1100.0. We can also see that current
price at 1098.0 is pushing into the highs of the bearish price channel so
trying to buy this area will be a challenge, as smart traders will look to sell
this resistance area.
 |
| Russell Anchor Chart 21 |
The (21) anchor chart shows us that buyers have been trying to
push prices higher for the past 36 hours, but they clearly have their work cut
out for them at the highs of this bear price channel. We see resistance overhead at 1111.8 which
will make for an excellent place to sell short in this downtrend, and if we do
get short we have a profit-target down at the buy-zone of 1083.8.
push prices higher for the past 36 hours, but they clearly have their work cut
out for them at the highs of this bear price channel. We see resistance overhead at 1111.8 which
will make for an excellent place to sell short in this downtrend, and if we do
get short we have a profit-target down at the buy-zone of 1083.8.
 |
| Russell Anchor Chart 13 |
The (13) anchor chart shows us a bullish market-personality with
higher-highs and higher-lows as price tests the highs of this bear price
channel. Furthermore, we can see an excellent
buying opportunity at the support level at 1093.3.
higher-highs and higher-lows as price tests the highs of this bear price
channel. Furthermore, we can see an excellent
buying opportunity at the support level at 1093.3.
We can draw a trend-line as support below us, and the highs
of the price channel act as resistance above us… all of this telling us to be
patient and wait for tomorrow morning’s news report to be released so we can
see the react and trade with the new trend that comes from it.
of the price channel act as resistance above us… all of this telling us to be
patient and wait for tomorrow morning’s news report to be released so we can
see the react and trade with the new trend that comes from it.
My plan for the Mini-Russell
is to be technically, emotionally, and physically prepared for a very important
news report tomorrow.
is to be technically, emotionally, and physically prepared for a very important
news report tomorrow.
I’m ready for anything,
and will wait for 15-minutes after the news is released to make an educated
decision along with our members in the Live Trade Room.
and will wait for 15-minutes after the news is released to make an educated
decision along with our members in the Live Trade Room.
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