March 31, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Price Reversal on Crude Oil made my day today!
The dollar has dropped from the sideways range on Wednesday
– We now see the dollar is oversold on the 34range chart, with momentum curling up
– We expect the dollar index to now rise, giving us selling opportunities on the market we trade most.
– We see the dollar at the lows of the price channel in pink trend lines and with the big drop, we expect a decent pop back up.
– Dollar rises = selling opportunities at resistance
830am est
– Jobless claims come out slightly higher than expected
– Lets wait and see what the market’s reaction is
– Don’t forget that ALL the opinions on this news release are expressed in the DOLLAR
840am est
– We see the gold futures are testing the PHOD
– The PHOD is a major transitional area
– Above the PHOD we should see the HOD tested again, buyers are in control
– Below the PHOD was have to assume the market participants see NO VALUE in higher prices, so the sellers are in control.
– We looked for a 21r wave long on gold, but the news at 830am and the slow speed made us wait
– Now 10 mins later the faster timeframes on gold (13r and 4r) and showing flat trigger line, slow speed, and overbought momentum.
– This tells us that this PHOD is the transition area.
– Where are we going to go? Nobody knows!!
920am est
– Where are we right now?
– We just finished selling the highs on crude oil for a fast track win and advanced win
– Now we see the US market open coming around the corner and we wait for the 930am open
– We’re at the highs of the wedge on crude, look to sell the highs
– Sell new lows buy shorting retracements, do NOT sell the lows, or sell with oversold momentum
– Below 106.00 we enter back into the bullish channel.
– I want to sell the highs of the channel, selling < 106.00
– 106 is a big round number, so this area will be expected to be sloppy
– I will buy 106.00 first as support, and then sell < 106.00 when it breaks.
– Look for the lows of the price channel to be the final target.
– If we get below 105.80, we are now headed down to 104.57 the BMT>
– Getting in short below 106 may be a challenge with the 34range trigger line at 105.81
– Patience is key, wait for the 34r trigger line to REALLY break and then take it down to the lows.
950am est
– We’ve just finished with a wave long on the 21r on crude oil
– We couldn’t quite get up to the HOD on the wave, the market had a challenge breaking that top of the wedge for a 2nd time.
– Now we think the crude oil is transitioning into the sell side.
– We are at the highs of the wedge, so we want to sell on crude oil
Lets plan our attack on crude oil…
– As we drop off the highs, im buying 106.00 as support first, this is also the top of the channel, which will support
– We have the highs of the channel @ 106.00 and we see major trigger line support at 105.93
– Wait to sell below .93 so we can sell the highs of the channel (50 tick winner!!!!!!)
– 105.50 looks to be the swing highs from earlier this AM, so that will be a great target for this short.
– The PHOD is another great target for the short sellers. This will act like a price magnet.
– Swing trade method also signals short when we tested the highs earlier this morning.
– The key to this swing trade short will be getting in below the major support.
– 34range trigger line is the MOST IMPORTANT issue to watch for this short.
