May 6, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Horseshoe Pattern earns BIG Crude Oil Profit
2 reasons why we always follow fast track rules:
– Set a good example as a foundation to learn the CORRECT way
– You can feel confident trading these along with me as a new member or as a guest
– I will call every pattern
o Identify the pattern as high or low risk, and tell you WHY
o My experienced members can learn and earn more every day
o My NEW members can learn more about the difference between the types of patterns
o My guests can feel confident entering trades when I call them as HIGH %, or low risk
820am est
– We’re going through the motions this morning, getting ready for battle
– We have very important 830am news
– NonFarm Payrolls often times don’t allow us to trade4 until after 845am
– Sometimes the speed and the whippy personality make it very tough to have confidence
– Will make you FEEL like you MUST take a trade
– There is no short term trend on the DX 06-11 contract
– Sideways dollar = no directional bias = sideways ranges = trade both sides
– This may change after this news comes out, so we will watch the dollar all morning, but right now, there is no direction on the dollar.
– How do I profit from this?
– Sideways dollar = trade inside the ranges on the markets I trade
– Find the highs and the lows of the range and buy the lows and sell the highs.
– When the dollar stays flat, we stay inside our ranges, so use that info to profit
– When the dollar trends, we break out of these same ranges, so look for breakouts and buy pullbacks/sell retracements.
840am est
– We saw confusing information from the 830am news
– Jobs got better, but unemployment got worse
– Dollar jumped, but then came back down again, so pretty much where we left off
– Now we’re prepping the crude oil
– 34range chart on crude oil:
o Sideways Ranges in the white box
o Price Channel in orange trend lines
o Price Wedge in the orange trend lines
– We are above the PLOD = strong bullish sign in the market, look to buy pullbacks with new highs
– Lets plan our attack on the crude oil
– The dollar is flat, so sell the highs and buy the lows. Sell resistance and buy support
– If price rises:
o Selling the HOD, selling the high of the wedge, the highs of the channel around 100.00
o Yikes!!! The 100.00 level is the KING of Big Round Numbers!
o We have to be cautious around 100.00, it will act like a magnet
o Im tempted to avoid the 100 level all together, it wasn’t for the highs of the ranges.
o As price rises im buying pullbacks as resistance turns into support, when we make new higher highs
– If price falls:
o Im buying first, selling retracements as support is broken and becomes resistance
o Im buying the lows of the channel at 98.00, buying the PLOD as support, and selling below the PLOD when it becomes resistance
o We have the BMT at 98.82, and we want to avoid trading around the BMT
o Im buying the lows of the sideways ranges at 96.00, 95.00 etc
o I also have some major levels of support marked from our 89range chart at 94.86, 92.65, 90.66, 88.77
o
855am est
– We’ve had very little movement after the 830am news
– The dollar has now retreated back into its earlier trading range and the markets on gold and crude are looking for personality
925am est
– Great example of how we made the right trading decisions, but this market just didn’t want play ‘nice’ with us today
– Lets wait for the next high % area and look for a better view of price action.
– Where will our next trade be on crude oil?
– Buy the lows of the channel at 98.25, also the PLOD
– Sell the highs of the channel and the highs of the range at 99.90
945am est
– We continue to make money following our plan
– We aren’t getting as much profit per trade as we normally do (no 3rd target getting filled) but we’re following our plan and that’s all we can do.
– We’ve been selling the highs and buying the lows with a sideways dollar, so lets keep it up!!
– Plan our attack on crude oil:
o If price rises im selling the highs of the range and the highs of the price wedge/channel at 99.89, 99.70
o If price falls im buying the lows/support levels at the lows of the range, lows of the wedge/channel at 98.25, 98.57
1025am est
– We continue to wait patiently for these markets to give us high % patterns to trade.
– We see a double top on crude oil and the 100.00 around the OPEN tells us to expect rising prices as we finish the morning.
1045am est
– WOW what a day, what a week, what a start to a new month!
– Once again, for the third day in a row we have trouble early in the morning but the late morning moves make us a KILLING!
1100am est
– Beware trading right now, even though the price is moving higher/lower
– Read the tape, take a demo trade and SEE/FEEL how the price action is different.
Lets wrap up our week with a final rundown of the most important aspect on our charts:
Gold:
– If prices rise:
o Im buying a pullback above 94.8, taking profit at the next major level of resistance
o We also have the highs of the channel, which will make for an excellent place to take profit as well.
o The 89range chart shows overhead resistance at 13.9, 22.0 and I will be using that as a final profit target if we get long with a pullback
o As price rises im selling the highs of the channel at 1500.00
o Beware price getting sloppy around 1500
o Im selling the resistance first, and then buying pullbacks at new higher highs
– If price falls:
o Buyer first at support, then selling with retracements when we see new lower lows
o Buying the lows of the wedge in the yellow trend line around 1470.0
o I’m buying the LOD at 62.5, and the lows of the channel around 45.0
o I’m buying major support at 45.0, 11.6 and selling retracements with new lows
– Avoid the BMT on Gold @ 1487.2 this will be a very sloppy area on ANY market
Ask yourself these questions:
– Dollar trend? No trend = sideways = sell the highs and buy the lows = stays inside the range
– There is no news to worry about
– We have major resistance and support levels above and below us (22.0, 13.9 / 45.0, 11.6)
– Price wedge using the blue channel and the green trend line to create the wedge (we are in the middle of the wedge
– Price channel in blue trend lines (in the middle)
– Sideways ranges in the white box from 13.8 down to 62.5 (no DX trend , sell the highs and buy the lows of these ranges
Now lets plan our attack today:
– If price rises:
o Sell the wedge highs @ 98.5, also the HOD
o Sell channel highs @ 04.5
o Sell the 13.8, this is the highs from the 89r
o Sell the 22.0 the highs off the 89range, which is also the PHOD
o As price makes new highs above these resistance levels I will buy a pullback
– If price falls
o Buy the lows of the channel @ 83.4
o Buy the LOD 74.6
o Buy the lows of the wedge at 69.1
o Buy the PLOD at 62.5
o Buy the lows of the channel at 45.0, which is also a major level of support off the 89range
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