Token Print Gold Reversal day trading crude oil and e-mini Russell futures

Im going to begin looking at the dollar index, the most important things to look for are:

– Overall trend is very important because of the correlation

o Example if the overall trend is down, we expect the markets in general to be rising

– Is this an inside or an outside day?

o Are we trading inside the range from yesterday? Or outside?

– Are we breaking new highs or new lows in today’s trading range?

o Example: sideways markets are always more difficult to trade than trending, or moving markets on the dollar

– Width of the trading range

o Narrow trading ranges on the dollar always means difficult price action on other markets
o Wider trading ranges on the dollar means better opportunities on other markets.

830am EST

– News is out at 830am EST

– We see the dollar index has a few good reasons to be excited about trading today (good price action)

o Outside trading day
o Wide trading range
o Making new lows (moving market)

– Set my price alert to tell me when the dollar index goes back into the range above us so we know when to expect the price action to get more challenging.

900am EST

– Crude oil futures trading back at new highs after a very big move up over the past two days

– It may be a good day for some consolidation on the crude oil considering the big moves up, so be on the look out for sideways trading.

– We have a well defined price bracket from 81.31 down to 79.70 so we are trading inside this bracket first selling the highs of 31 and buying the lows of trend line and the 70.

– If we break 81.50 we will look for the breakout to the upside, and will avoid the chop zone 81.31 up to 81.50

– 13-range chart on crude oil futures shows us a lot more important information

o We draw a bullish channel and we are at the highs of this channel, so buying above 50 will be a higher risk trade (buying into the highs)

o We also draw a trend line as support and we now have a higher risk 2step reversal off these highs b/c of the trend line we need to break first.

o We also see a glimpse into the market’s personality, higher highs were not made by much, and came tumbling back down, this tells us to be careful buying the breakouts long.

– The faster timeframe 4range chart on the crude oil shows us the most important information, we can see a well defined channel that really tells us where to trade and where to avoid.

– Now we know we need to get below 80.87 for the highest % trade opportunity to avoid the big round number, the trend line support and the swing low support.

945AM est

– We’re seeing a very narrow trading range on the dollar which is of concern

– We have the markets very slow and sluggish

– Waiting for crude oil to break the 80.87 for a short, staying away from the longs

– The Russell gave us the first trade of the day when it failed to breakout and we traded the failure of the breakout coming down into the range below 79.4

1100am est

– Gold futures trading sideways at the highs, im going to avoid buying the highs and will look for the short.

– We can see a reversal pattern on the gold futures selling short below 15.3 with profit targets of 14.0, 12.3, soft 10.0 and then hard final target of 6.5, the low of the channel.

– Crude oil futures are trading sideways at the highs as well, so we’re looking for a chance to enter short

– I see the Previous High of day 80.43 and this makes a perfect short entry

o Remember above the P HOD we are bullish (long), and below the P HOD we are bearish (shorts)

– Entry short below 80.43 ill be using a 2-step reversal pattern with profit target 30, 17, and then down to the bottom of the trading range of 79.75 for the final target.

– The euro is trading in a sideways range at the highs and very slow and sluggish, so we are most likely going to see this trading range hold, which means the following

o I will sell the highs of 3770
o I will buy the breakout above 3770
o I will buy the lows of 3706
o I will at the trend line support
o I will also sell the break below 1.3700 getting in short 5 ticks below the big round number.

– The Russell futures are trading off the highs and sideways right now

– We have a breaker pattern short below 71.1 with profit targets of 69.3, 65.4, soft 60.5, and hard final target at 57.0